Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06.
Two paired wheel simulations on WPM, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +19.0 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 17.6% | 36.6% | +19.0 pp |
| Annualized return | 8.5% | 16.9% | +8.5 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 110.3% | 110.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 43.4% | 33.6% | -9.7 pp |
| Assignment rate | 36.4% | 18.8% | -17.6 pp |
| Call-away rate | 50.0% | 38.5% | -11.5 pp |
| Average cycle return | 1.6% | 1.1% | — |
| Sample cycles | 11 | 32 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 17 | 45 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 47% | 44% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 31% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 21 and behind on 16. The WPM total-return delta of +19.0 pp ranks 4th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is +2.0 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 17.6% against 110.3% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 92.7 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its precious-metals peers GDX, GLD, NEM and SLV, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 4 of 4; WPM itself came in at +19.0 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for WPM shows a put assignment rate of 21.9% and wheel P&L of $2,756 against $7,149 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | WPM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +19.0 pp | +2.0 pp | 4th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -9.7 pp | -0.6 pp | 2nd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 36.6% | 16.0% | 7th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 16.9% | 7.7% | 7th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 17.6% | 15.0% | 17th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 33.6% | 19.0% | 34th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 38.5% | 42.1% | 23rd of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 8.5% | 7.2% | 17th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 110.3% | 26.4% | 5th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 43.4% | 20.8% | 34th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 36.4% | 36.4% | 17th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 18.8% | 31.8% | 31st of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 32 | 28 | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.1% | 0.6% | 8th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPM | 17.6% | 36.6% | +19.0 pp | 110.3% | 43.4% | 33.6% | 36.4% | 18.8% |
| GDX | 35.0% | 39.5% | +4.5 pp | 124.5% | 36.1% | 26.5% | 33.3% | 35.7% |
| GLD | 3.4% | 11.3% | +7.9 pp | 50.2% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 25.0% | 15.2% |
| NEM | 28.8% | 43.5% | +14.7 pp | 168.5% | 34.6% | 30.0% | 45.5% | 26.9% |
| SLV | 5.7% | 16.0% | +10.4 pp | 64.6% | 35.8% | 37.8% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
WPM wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 WPM shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-08 ($4,180) and the worst was 2026-03 (−$3,264).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$249 | — | $0 | $249 | $615 |
| 2024-12 | −$858 | −$609 | $0 | $858 | $874 |
| 2025-01 | −$235 | $623 | $0 | $235 | $907 |
| 2025-02 | $410 | $645 | $544 | $134 | $907 |
| 2025-03 | $1,281 | $871 | $1,281 | $0 | $907 |
| 2025-04 | $1,870 | $589 | $2,032 | $162 | $907 |
| 2025-05 | $2,193 | $323 | $2,193 | $0 | $927 |
| 2025-06 | $2,498 | $305 | $2,793 | $295 | $927 |
| 2025-07 | $2,669 | $171 | $3,090 | $421 | $927 |
| 2025-08 | $3,560 | $891 | $3,587 | $27 | $967 |
| 2025-09 | $4,702 | $1,142 | $4,702 | $0 | $967 |
| 2025-10 | $3,170 | −$1,532 | $4,868 | $1,698 | $1,905 |
| 2025-11 | $4,523 | $1,353 | $4,868 | $345 | $1,913 |
| 2025-12 | $5,270 | $747 | $5,940 | $670 | $1,913 |
| 2026-01 | $6,705 | $1,435 | $9,148 | $2,443 | $2,443 |
| 2026-02 | $9,883 | $3,178 | $9,883 | $0 | $2,540 |
| 2026-03 | $6,619 | −$3,264 | $10,090 | $3,471 | $5,110 |
| 2026-04 | $6,164 | −$455 | $10,090 | $3,926 | $5,110 |
| 2026-05 | $6,778 | $614 | $10,090 | $3,312 | $5,110 |
| 2026-06 | $4,750 | −$2,028 | $10,090 | $5,340 | $5,820 |
| 2026-07 | $4,421 | −$329 | $10,090 | $5,669 | $6,227 |
| 2026-08 | $8,601 | $4,180 | $10,090 | $1,489 | $6,227 |
| 2026-09 | $6,890 | −$1,711 | $10,090 | $3,200 | $6,227 |
| 2026-10 | $5,176 | −$1,714 | $10,090 | $4,914 | $6,227 |
| 2026-11 | $7,149 | $1,973 | $10,090 | $2,941 | $6,227 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06, refreshed 2026-11-08.
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