One simulated recipe — a cash-secured wheel, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE — run two ways across a curated ticker universe.
This hub publishes the persisted results of paired wheel backtests: a standard arm that holds short options to expiry, and a managed arm that buys back at 21 DTE. Everything shown is a historical simulation of one fixed recipe — never collected income and never a prediction.
Refreshed 2026-10-18 · period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16 · 37 published tickers (8 more ran but did not meet publication thresholds). The rule improved total return on 18 and reduced it on 19 — both are listed below.
Modelled pricing: real option bars priced a median 49% of option entry fills (lowest 40%) and 49%of the 21-Day arm's buy-backs. The rest are modelled from implied or realized volatility where no market quote existed.
| Ticker | Standard total return | 21-Day total return | Rule delta | Drawdown delta | Assignment delta | Real-bar fills (std / 21-Day) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPM | 11.9% | 49.4% | +37.5 pp | -4.0 pp | +13.5 pp | 47% / 43% |
| XOM | 11.1% | 30.7% | +19.6 pp | -1.2 pp | +7.9 pp | 50% / 50% |
| COP | -0.7% | 18.6% | +19.3 pp | +0.2 pp | +6.7 pp | 41% / 45% |
| ORCL | -36.2% | -17.3% | +18.9 pp | -12.6 pp | -28.5 pp | 47% / 49% |
| AMD | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp | +0.5 pp | -19.6 pp | 47% / 49% |
| URA | -2.7% | 12.7% | +15.4 pp | -6.2 pp | -13.5 pp | 44% / 40% |
| GOOGL | 21.0% | 35.2% | +14.3 pp | -3.1 pp | +1.9 pp | 53% / 50% |
| CVX | 7.7% | 15.7% | +8.0 pp | -5.6 pp | -29.3 pp | 47% / 50% |
| LLY | 14.7% | 22.0% | +7.3 pp | +5.8 pp | -4.1 pp | 47% / 49% |
| UNH | -31.2% | -25.1% | +6.1 pp | -3.6 pp | -33.9 pp | 47% / 48% |
| AMZN | 3.0% | 8.8% | +5.8 pp | -3.5 pp | -5.3 pp | 50% / 50% |
| COST | 16.7% | 21.8% | +5.1 pp | -3.2 pp | -30.7 pp | 44% / 49% |
| TSLA | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp | -5.4 pp | +8.9 pp | 50% / 50% |
| AEM | 31.3% | 35.0% | +3.8 pp | -0.7 pp | +14.8 pp | 50% / 45% |
| SMH | 39.6% | 43.4% | +3.8 pp | -8.7 pp | -9.6 pp | 50% / 48% |
| KO | 13.7% | 16.0% | +2.2 pp | -0.7 pp | -5.5 pp | 47% / 43% |
| TLT | 0.4% | 2.5% | +2.1 pp | -1.6 pp | +11.2 pp | 50% / 49% |
| SPY | 8.7% | 10.2% | +1.5 pp | +0.8 pp | -2.5 pp | 53% / 50% |
| WMT | 24.7% | 23.3% | -1.4 pp | -1.3 pp | +20.6 pp | 44% / 50% |
| QQQ | 18.1% | 15.3% | -2.8 pp | +0.5 pp | +0.8 pp | 53% / 50% |
| DIA | 10.1% | 7.0% | -3.2 pp | -0.0 pp | -7.9 pp | 50% / 49% |
| IWM | 6.5% | 3.3% | -3.2 pp | +2.9 pp | -14.6 pp | 50% / 50% |
| GLD | 15.7% | 11.8% | -3.9 pp | +1.5 pp | -13.7 pp | 44% / 50% |
| XLF | 13.5% | 8.7% | -4.8 pp | -1.8 pp | -22.3 pp | 47% / 48% |
| XLV | 10.9% | 4.7% | -6.2 pp | +0.4 pp | +6.4 pp | 47% / 47% |
| NEM | 16.2% | 9.8% | -6.4 pp | +0.5 pp | +6.5 pp | 50% / 45% |
| MSFT | 12.0% | 3.4% | -8.6 pp | -5.1 pp | -10.2 pp | 47% / 50% |
| PG | 12.2% | 3.2% | -9.0 pp | -4.0 pp | -35.0 pp | 47% / 48% |
| AVGO | 37.6% | 25.1% | -12.5 pp | -20.4 pp | +8.4 pp | 50% / 49% |
| META | 34.4% | 21.7% | -12.7 pp | -10.1 pp | -18.3 pp | 47% / 50% |
| SLV | 28.3% | 14.4% | -13.9 pp | +5.2 pp | -8.8 pp | 47% / 50% |
| XLP | 18.1% | 3.1% | -15.0 pp | +0.1 pp | -19.2 pp | 50% / 44% |
| BAC | 1.7% | -15.8% | -17.5 pp | -3.4 pp | -6.6 pp | 50% / 47% |
| JPM | 36.4% | 18.2% | -18.2 pp | -5.9 pp | -0.2 pp | 50% / 49% |
| GDX | 28.9% | 10.1% | -18.8 pp | +2.4 pp | +22.6 pp | 50% / 49% |
| AAPL | 30.5% | 7.5% | -23.0 pp | -1.3 pp | -4.3 pp | 50% / 50% |
| NVDA | 60.9% | 22.1% | -38.8 pp | -0.6 pp | +21.2 pp | 50% / 50% |
Cherry-picked tickers where a management rule happened to help
Simulated premium described as if it were cash collected
Stale results left up after the data behind them went bad
Research pages that secretly call a live data provider per visit
Both arms run the same cash-secured wheel on the same ticker, dates, strikes and market-data policy, sized to the account so neither uses leverage. The only difference is exit timing: the 21-Day arm buys every short option back at 21 DTE, taking or delivering shares when the option is in the money.
Tickers are sorted by how much the rule changed total return — the ones where it hurt are listed right next to the ones where it helped.
A missing, failed, or stale refresh removes results from this page. It never fills gaps with invented numbers.
These pages read stored rows only. Change ticker, DTE, or dates in the interactive wheel backtest.
A weekly precompute runs both arms through the backtest engine and stores only allowlisted summary metrics — never per-trade tapes or price series.
A ticker publishes only with at least 4 cycles, 180 days of history, and passing data quality. Failed or stale refreshes unpublish rather than linger.
Open a ticker for the full arm-by-arm breakdown, then run your own recipe in the gated backtest.
Run the same engine with your own ticker, DTE, and OTM
The expiry-only recipe snapshots
How historical simulation fits the rest of the product
Live broker sync, true cost basis after rolls. No card.
Everything you need to know about getting started
