Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23.
Two paired wheel simulations on XOM, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -20.1 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 37.2% | 17.1% | -20.1 pp |
| Annualized return | 17.2% | 8.3% | -8.9 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 53.3% | 53.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 13.7% | 12.0% | -1.7 pp |
| Assignment rate | 36.4% | 31.0% | -5.4 pp |
| Call-away rate | 57.1% | 50.0% | -7.1 pp |
| Average cycle return | 3.4% | 0.6% | — |
| Sample cycles | 11 | 29 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 47 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 49% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 51% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 16 and behind on 21. The XOM total-return delta of -20.1 pp ranks 35th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -0.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 37.2% against 53.3% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 16.1 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its energy peers COP and CVX, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 2 of 2; XOM itself came in at -20.1 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for XOM shows a put assignment rate of 45.5% and wheel P&L of $6,260 against $5,897 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | XOM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -20.1 pp | -0.4 pp | 35th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -1.7 pp | -1.7 pp | 19th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 17.1% | 16.8% | 18th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 8.3% | 8.1% | 18th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 37.2% | 19.6% | 4th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 12.0% | 19.0% | 7th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 50.0% | 42.1% | 8th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 17.2% | 9.4% | 4th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 53.3% | 42.2% | 11th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 13.7% | 20.2% | 6th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 36.4% | 33.3% | 16th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 31.0% | 31.0% | 19th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 29 | 28 | 14th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.6% | 0.6% | 21st of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 37.2% | 17.1% | -20.1 pp | 53.3% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 36.4% | 31.0% |
| COP | 23.8% | 23.9% | +0.1 pp | 44.2% | 15.7% | 16.1% | 40.0% | 52.0% |
| CVX | 9.2% | 10.2% | +1.0 pp | 54.6% | 20.0% | 18.5% | 40.0% | 23.5% |
XOM wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23, refreshed 2026-10-25.
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