Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $495.24 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $4476.00 vs $3980.76).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $4476.00 | $3980.76 |
| Largest drop | $3541.00 | $1876.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 10 cycles).
Simulated premium was $7,231. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$3,250. Combined realized P&L was $3,981.
Puts were assigned on 34.5% of put trades (10 of 29). Calls were assigned away on 45.5% of call trades (10 of 22).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($3,981) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($4,476) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $1,876 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,876, from the 2026-03-27 peak to the 2026-04-17 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-05-18. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $3,541 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $3,541, from the 2026-03-30 peak to the 2026-06-29 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-10-12.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 280 of 500 days (56.0%). Its widest lead was $1,647 on 2025-04-10; its widest deficit was −$2,685 on 2026-03-30.
Wheel P&L peaked at $4,089 on 2026-09-15 and bottomed at −$1,657 on 2025-04-11. Buy-and-hold peaked at $6,614 on 2026-10-30 and bottomed at −$2,118 on 2025-04-10.
Of 51 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $149 | — | −$315 | $464 | $0 | $397 |
| 2024-12 | −$921 | −$1,070 | −$1,354 | $433 | $1,070 | $1,436 |
| 2025-01 | −$1,134 | −$213 | −$1,428 | $294 | $1,283 | $1,510 |
| 2025-02 | −$578 | $556 | −$978 | $400 | $727 | $1,060 |
| 2025-03 | −$471 | $107 | −$218 | −$253 | $620 | $300 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,240 | −$769 | −$1,548 | $308 | $1,389 | $1,630 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,584 | −$344 | −$1,881 | $297 | $1,733 | $1,963 |
| 2025-06 | −$875 | $708 | −$1,331 | $456 | $1,024 | $1,413 |
| 2025-07 | −$500 | $375 | −$947 | $447 | $649 | $1,029 |
| 2025-08 | −$563 | −$63 | −$682 | $119 | $712 | $764 |
| 2025-09 | −$137 | $426 | −$836 | $699 | $286 | $918 |
| 2025-10 | $346 | $483 | −$675 | $1,021 | $0 | $757 |
| 2025-11 | $592 | $246 | −$519 | $1,111 | $0 | $601 |
| 2025-12 | $797 | $205 | −$77 | $874 | $0 | $159 |
| 2026-01 | $1,385 | $588 | $2,029 | −$644 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-02 | $1,819 | $434 | $3,139 | −$1,320 | $0 | $306 |
| 2026-03 | $2,351 | $532 | $4,855 | −$2,504 | $0 | $181 |
| 2026-04 | $1,599 | −$752 | $3,322 | −$1,723 | $752 | $1,714 |
| 2026-05 | $1,923 | $324 | $2,415 | −$492 | $692 | $2,621 |
| 2026-06 | $1,030 | −$893 | $1,561 | −$531 | $1,585 | $3,475 |
| 2026-07 | $2,764 | $1,734 | $3,433 | −$669 | $404 | $1,603 |
| 2026-08 | $3,248 | $484 | $3,984 | −$736 | $0 | $1,052 |
| 2026-09 | $3,599 | $351 | $4,164 | −$565 | $490 | $872 |
| 2026-10 | $3,981 | $382 | $6,614 | −$2,633 | $108 | $0 |
| 2026-11 | $3,981 | $0 | $4,476 | −$495 | $108 | $2,138 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XOM is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 181.6% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its energy peers COP, CVX, OIH and XLE, XOM sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 27.1%. 1 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while XOM did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for XOM uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -19.4 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | XOM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 34.5% | 31.0% | 15th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $7,231 | $10,128 | 27th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $3,981 | $2,828 | 18th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $4,476 | $3,901 | 21st of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$495 | −$495 | 23rd of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOM | 34.5% | $7,231 | $3,981 | $4,476 | Wheel behind |
| COP | 37.0% | $7,066 | $566 | $2,468 | Wheel behind |
| CVX | 24.3% | $8,600 | $2,600 | $5,568 | Wheel behind |
| OIH | 29.2% | $22,360 | $6,360 | $5,798 | Wheel ahead |
| XLE | 25.0% | $3,280 | $1,230 | $1,474 | Wheel behind |
XOM 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 27 bar / 18 HV
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