Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $1058.86 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $9751.00 vs $8692.14).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $9751.00 | $8692.14 |
| Largest drop | $6967.00 | $4461.25 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 7 cycles).
Simulated premium was $14,692. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$6,000. Combined realized P&L was $8,692.
Puts were assigned on 20.6% of put trades (7 of 34). Calls were assigned away on 35.3% of call trades (6 of 17).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($8,692) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($9,751) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $4,461 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $4,461, from the 2025-01-16 peak to the 2025-03-13 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-07-18. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $6,967 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $6,967, from the 2025-02-18 peak to the 2025-04-04 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-06-24.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 31 of 500 days (6.2%). Its widest lead was $2,466 on 2025-04-04; its widest deficit was −$5,534 on 2026-08-12.
Wheel P&L peaked at $8,903 on 2026-11-04 and bottomed at −$2,078 on 2025-03-13. Buy-and-hold peaked at $12,820 on 2026-08-12 and bottomed at −$2,670 on 2025-04-04.
Of 51 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $416 | — | $1,274 | −$858 | $0 | $57 |
| 2024-12 | $695 | $278 | $273 | $422 | $343 | $1,058 |
| 2025-01 | $1,906 | $1,211 | $3,032 | −$1,126 | $477 | $93 |
| 2025-02 | $1,597 | −$308 | $2,767 | −$1,170 | $786 | $1,530 |
| 2025-03 | −$205 | −$1,802 | $832 | −$1,037 | $2,588 | $3,465 |
| 2025-04 | $379 | $584 | $764 | −$385 | $2,004 | $3,533 |
| 2025-05 | $1,097 | $718 | $2,702 | −$1,605 | $1,286 | $1,595 |
| 2025-06 | $1,785 | $687 | $5,293 | −$3,508 | $599 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $2,399 | $615 | $5,926 | −$3,527 | $0 | $339 |
| 2025-08 | $3,151 | $751 | $6,444 | −$3,293 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $3,695 | $545 | $7,845 | −$4,150 | $0 | $63 |
| 2025-10 | $4,538 | $843 | $7,414 | −$2,876 | $0 | $494 |
| 2025-11 | $5,186 | $648 | $7,610 | −$2,424 | $0 | $733 |
| 2025-12 | $4,868 | −$318 | $8,524 | −$3,656 | $620 | $695 |
| 2026-01 | $4,234 | −$634 | $6,891 | −$2,657 | $1,254 | $2,872 |
| 2026-02 | $4,206 | −$28 | $6,332 | −$2,126 | $1,908 | $3,431 |
| 2026-03 | $4,722 | $516 | $5,718 | −$996 | $1,392 | $4,045 |
| 2026-04 | $4,924 | $202 | $7,625 | −$2,701 | $1,415 | $2,138 |
| 2026-05 | $5,526 | $602 | $6,233 | −$707 | $813 | $3,530 |
| 2026-06 | $6,276 | $750 | $9,035 | −$2,759 | $63 | $779 |
| 2026-07 | $7,044 | $768 | $11,481 | −$4,437 | $0 | $552 |
| 2026-08 | $7,580 | $536 | $11,904 | −$4,324 | $0 | $916 |
| 2026-09 | $6,159 | −$1,421 | $9,385 | −$3,226 | $2,121 | $3,435 |
| 2026-10 | $7,396 | $1,237 | $10,006 | −$2,610 | $884 | $2,814 |
| 2026-11 | $7,141 | −$255 | $9,751 | −$2,610 | $1,762 | $3,069 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. JPM is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 169.0% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its financials peers BAC and XLF, JPM sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 26.4%. 1 of those 2 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while JPM did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for JPM uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -7.0 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | JPM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 20.6% | 31.0% | 36th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $14,692 | $10,128 | 18th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $8,692 | $2,828 | 11th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $9,751 | $3,901 | 13th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$1,059 | −$495 | 27th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JPM | 20.6% | $14,692 | $8,692 | $9,751 | Wheel behind |
| BAC | 31.0% | $2,877 | $1,477 | $429 | Wheel ahead |
| XLF | 21.9% | $1,744 | $594 | $797 | Wheel behind |
JPM 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 27 bar / 18 HV
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