Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $203.04 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $797.00 vs $593.96).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $797.00 | $593.96 |
| Largest drop | $859.00 | $634.83 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 7 cycles).
Simulated premium was $1,744. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$1,150. Combined realized P&L was $594.
Puts were assigned on 21.9% of put trades (7 of 32). Calls were assigned away on 36.8% of call trades (7 of 19).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($594) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($797) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $635 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $635, from the 2025-03-25 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-06-20. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $859 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $859, from the 2026-01-06 peak to the 2026-03-27 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-07-15.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 255 of 500 days (51.0%). Its widest lead was $392 on 2025-11-20; its widest deficit was −$407 on 2026-11-04.
Wheel P&L peaked at $788 on 2026-09-03 and bottomed at −$509 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $1,001 on 2026-11-04 and bottomed at −$527 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $34 | — | $215 | −$181 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024-12 | −$74 | −$108 | −$86 | $12 | $141 | $301 |
| 2025-01 | $51 | $125 | $228 | −$177 | $50 | $30 |
| 2025-02 | $61 | $10 | $299 | −$238 | $40 | $1 |
| 2025-03 | $80 | $19 | $62 | $18 | $46 | $238 |
| 2025-04 | −$46 | −$126 | −$43 | −$3 | $172 | $343 |
| 2025-05 | $65 | $112 | $177 | −$112 | $60 | $123 |
| 2025-06 | $154 | $88 | $318 | −$164 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $263 | $109 | $318 | −$55 | $0 | $107 |
| 2025-08 | $373 | $110 | $480 | −$107 | $135 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $419 | $46 | $468 | −$49 | $89 | $38 |
| 2025-10 | $538 | $119 | $318 | $220 | $47 | $188 |
| 2025-11 | $695 | $157 | $414 | $281 | $0 | $92 |
| 2025-12 | $652 | −$43 | $558 | $94 | $76 | $96 |
| 2026-01 | $573 | −$79 | $425 | $148 | $155 | $296 |
| 2026-02 | $446 | −$127 | $224 | $222 | $282 | $497 |
| 2026-03 | $380 | −$66 | $18 | $362 | $348 | $703 |
| 2026-04 | $391 | $11 | $294 | $97 | $337 | $427 |
| 2026-05 | $430 | $39 | $239 | $191 | $298 | $482 |
| 2026-06 | $551 | $121 | $442 | $109 | $177 | $279 |
| 2026-07 | $620 | $69 | $775 | −$155 | $108 | $66 |
| 2026-08 | $703 | $83 | $852 | −$149 | $60 | $60 |
| 2026-09 | $340 | −$363 | $421 | −$81 | $448 | $516 |
| 2026-10 | $594 | $254 | $732 | −$138 | $194 | $205 |
| 2026-11 | $594 | $0 | $797 | −$203 | $194 | $204 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XLF is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 293.6% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its financials peers BAC and JPM, XLF sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 25.8%. 1 of those 2 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while XLF did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for XLF uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -15.7 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | XLF | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 21.9% | 31.0% | 33rd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $1,744 | $10,128 | 40th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $594 | $2,828 | 37th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $797 | $3,901 | 34th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$203 | −$495 | 20th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLF | 21.9% | $1,744 | $594 | $797 | Wheel behind |
| BAC | 31.0% | $2,877 | $1,477 | $429 | Wheel ahead |
| JPM | 20.6% | $14,692 | $8,692 | $9,751 | Wheel behind |
XLF 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 27 bar / 18 HV
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