Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on SMH, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +3.8 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 39.6% | 43.4% | +3.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 18.2% | 19.8% | +1.6 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 114.6% | 114.6% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 30.8% | 22.2% | -8.7 pp |
| Assignment rate | 30.8% | 21.2% | -9.6 pp |
| Call-away rate | 80.0% | 46.2% | -33.8 pp |
| Average cycle return | 3.0% | 1.3% | — |
| Sample cycles | 13 | 33 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 46 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 48% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 48% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The SMH total-return delta of +3.8 pp ranks 15th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 39.6% against 114.6% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 75.0 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, AMZN, MSFT and NVDA, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 1 of 4; SMH itself came in at +3.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for SMH shows a put assignment rate of 21.1% and wheel P&L of $25,743 against $28,828 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | SMH | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +3.8 pp | -1.4 pp | 15th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -8.7 pp | -1.3 pp | 4th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 43.4% | 14.4% | 3rd of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 19.8% | 7.0% | 3rd of 37 |
| Standard total return | 39.6% | 14.7% | 2nd of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 22.2% | 20.8% | 22nd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 46.2% | 39.1% | 13th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 18.2% | 7.1% | 2nd of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 114.6% | 38.6% | 3rd of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 30.8% | 24.3% | 28th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 30.8% | 30.8% | 18th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 21.2% | 32.0% | 28th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 33 | 27 | 5th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.3% | 0.5% | 4th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | 39.6% | 43.4% | +3.8 pp | 114.6% | 30.8% | 22.2% | 30.8% | 21.2% |
| AAPL | 30.5% | 7.5% | -23.0 pp | 46.2% | 28.0% | 26.8% | 36.4% | 32.1% |
| AMZN | 3.0% | 8.8% | +5.8 pp | 32.3% | 24.1% | 20.6% | 41.7% | 36.4% |
| MSFT | 12.0% | 3.4% | -8.6 pp | 26.5% | 24.7% | 19.5% | 33.3% | 23.1% |
| NVDA | 60.9% | 22.1% | -38.8 pp | 55.2% | 28.2% | 27.6% | 25.0% | 46.2% |
SMH wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 SMH shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-04 ($12,332) and the worst was 2026-07 (−$11,536).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$983 | — | $541 | $1,524 | $1,524 |
| 2024-11 | −$938 | $45 | $951 | $1,889 | $2,277 |
| 2024-12 | −$934 | $4 | $951 | $1,885 | $2,277 |
| 2025-01 | −$789 | $145 | $1,566 | $2,355 | $3,136 |
| 2025-02 | −$1,874 | −$1,085 | $1,566 | $3,440 | $3,838 |
| 2025-03 | −$4,004 | −$2,130 | $1,566 | $5,570 | $5,570 |
| 2025-04 | −$4,023 | −$19 | $1,566 | $5,589 | $8,722 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,176 | $2,847 | $1,566 | $2,742 | $8,722 |
| 2025-06 | $2,737 | $3,913 | $2,737 | $0 | $8,722 |
| 2025-07 | $3,727 | $990 | $4,475 | $748 | $8,722 |
| 2025-08 | $3,878 | $151 | $5,041 | $1,163 | $8,722 |
| 2025-09 | $7,485 | $3,607 | $7,485 | $0 | $8,722 |
| 2025-10 | $11,151 | $3,666 | $11,710 | $559 | $8,722 |
| 2025-11 | $10,077 | −$1,074 | $11,710 | $1,633 | $8,722 |
| 2025-12 | $10,862 | $785 | $12,259 | $1,397 | $8,722 |
| 2026-01 | $15,195 | $4,333 | $16,601 | $1,406 | $8,722 |
| 2026-02 | $15,486 | $291 | $17,465 | $1,979 | $8,722 |
| 2026-03 | $13,189 | −$2,297 | $17,465 | $4,276 | $8,722 |
| 2026-04 | $25,521 | $12,332 | $25,521 | $0 | $8,722 |
| 2026-05 | $34,742 | $9,221 | $35,063 | $321 | $8,722 |
| 2026-06 | $40,438 | $5,696 | $41,740 | $1,302 | $8,722 |
| 2026-07 | $28,902 | −$11,536 | $41,740 | $12,838 | $16,469 |
| 2026-08 | $30,512 | $1,610 | $41,740 | $11,228 | $16,469 |
| 2026-09 | $35,749 | $5,237 | $41,740 | $5,991 | $16,469 |
| 2026-10 | $28,828 | −$6,921 | $41,740 | $12,912 | $16,469 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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