Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23.
Two paired wheel simulations on AAPL, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -7.5 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 26.5% | 19.1% | -7.5 pp |
| Annualized return | 12.5% | 9.1% | -3.4 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 50.3% | 50.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 26.7% | 15.0% | -11.7 pp |
| Assignment rate | 27.3% | 32.3% | +5.0 pp |
| Call-away rate | 42.9% | 58.8% | +15.9 pp |
| Average cycle return | 2.4% | 0.6% | — |
| Sample cycles | 11 | 31 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 16 and behind on 21. The AAPL total-return delta of -7.5 pp ranks 29th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -0.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 26.5% against 50.3% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 23.7 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 1 of 4; AAPL itself came in at -7.5 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for AAPL shows a put assignment rate of 30.0% and wheel P&L of $1,884 against $11,631 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | AAPL | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -7.5 pp | -0.4 pp | 29th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -11.7 pp | -1.7 pp | 3rd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 19.1% | 16.8% | 15th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 9.1% | 8.1% | 15th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 26.5% | 19.6% | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 15.0% | 19.0% | 11th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 58.8% | 42.1% | 2nd of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 12.5% | 9.4% | 10th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 50.3% | 42.2% | 12th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 26.7% | 20.2% | 24th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 27.3% | 33.3% | 24th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 32.3% | 31.0% | 17th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 31 | 28 | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.6% | 0.6% | 19th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 26.5% | 19.1% | -7.5 pp | 50.3% | 26.7% | 15.0% | 27.3% | 32.3% |
| AMZN | 26.4% | 12.2% | -14.3 pp | 32.0% | 22.5% | 23.7% | 45.5% | 31.0% |
| GOOGL | 30.8% | 26.8% | -4.0 pp | 93.7% | 18.4% | 19.8% | 25.0% | 34.5% |
| MSFT | 15.1% | 19.3% | +4.2 pp | 22.5% | 21.9% | 19.0% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| NVDA | 61.0% | 39.4% | -21.6 pp | 49.0% | 28.7% | 28.9% | 23.1% | 37.0% |
AAPL wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 AAPL shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-05 ($4,071) and the worst was 2026-06 (−$2,270).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$550 | — | $226 | $776 | $776 |
| 2024-11 | $592 | $1,142 | $592 | $0 | $1,166 |
| 2024-12 | $1,901 | $1,309 | $2,761 | $860 | $1,166 |
| 2025-01 | $459 | −$1,442 | $2,761 | $2,302 | $3,638 |
| 2025-02 | $1,043 | $584 | $2,761 | $1,718 | $3,638 |
| 2025-03 | −$928 | −$1,971 | $2,761 | $3,689 | $4,934 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,891 | −$963 | $2,761 | $4,652 | $8,660 |
| 2025-05 | −$3,056 | −$1,165 | $2,761 | $5,817 | $8,660 |
| 2025-06 | −$2,624 | $432 | $2,761 | $5,385 | $8,660 |
| 2025-07 | −$2,384 | $240 | $2,761 | $5,145 | $8,660 |
| 2025-08 | $73 | $2,457 | $2,761 | $2,688 | $8,660 |
| 2025-09 | $2,322 | $2,249 | $2,761 | $439 | $8,660 |
| 2025-10 | $3,896 | $1,574 | $3,999 | $103 | $8,660 |
| 2025-11 | $4,744 | $848 | $4,744 | $0 | $8,660 |
| 2025-12 | $4,045 | −$699 | $5,478 | $1,433 | $8,660 |
| 2026-01 | $2,807 | −$1,238 | $5,478 | $2,671 | $8,660 |
| 2026-02 | $3,277 | $470 | $5,478 | $2,201 | $8,660 |
| 2026-03 | $2,238 | −$1,039 | $5,478 | $3,240 | $8,660 |
| 2026-04 | $3,994 | $1,756 | $5,478 | $1,484 | $8,660 |
| 2026-05 | $8,065 | $4,071 | $8,110 | $45 | $8,660 |
| 2026-06 | $5,795 | −$2,270 | $8,379 | $2,584 | $8,660 |
| 2026-07 | $7,750 | $1,955 | $10,867 | $3,117 | $8,660 |
| 2026-08 | $8,544 | $794 | $10,867 | $2,323 | $8,660 |
| 2026-09 | $10,161 | $1,617 | $10,966 | $805 | $8,660 |
| 2026-10 | $11,631 | $1,470 | $11,681 | $50 | $8,660 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23, refreshed 2026-10-25.
Everything you need to know about getting started
