Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on AMZN, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +5.8 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 3.0% | 8.8% | +5.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 1.5% | 4.3% | +2.8 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 32.3% | 32.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 24.1% | 20.6% | -3.5 pp |
| Assignment rate | 41.7% | 36.4% | -5.3 pp |
| Call-away rate | 66.7% | 26.9% | -39.8 pp |
| Average cycle return | 0.3% | 0.4% | — |
| Sample cycles | 12 | 22 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The AMZN total-return delta of +5.8 pp ranks 11th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 3.0% against 32.3% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 29.3 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, GOOGL, META and TSLA, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 3 of 4; AMZN itself came in at +5.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for AMZN shows a put assignment rate of 38.5% and wheel P&L of $2,686 against $6,101 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | AMZN | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +5.8 pp | -1.4 pp | 11th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -3.5 pp | -1.3 pp | 13th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 8.8% | 14.4% | 25th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 4.3% | 7.0% | 25th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 3.0% | 14.7% | 31st of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 20.6% | 20.8% | 17th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 26.9% | 39.1% | 33rd of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 1.5% | 7.1% | 31st of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 32.3% | 38.6% | 22nd of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 24.1% | 24.3% | 18th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 41.7% | 30.8% | 11th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 36.4% | 32.0% | 13th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 22 | 27 | 30th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.4% | 0.5% | 21st of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 3.0% | 8.8% | +5.8 pp | 32.3% | 24.1% | 20.6% | 41.7% | 36.4% |
| AMD | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp | 239.0% | 35.5% | 36.1% | 57.1% | 37.5% |
| GOOGL | 21.0% | 35.2% | +14.3 pp | 108.4% | 24.7% | 21.6% | 21.4% | 23.3% |
| META | 34.4% | 21.7% | -12.7 pp | 23.0% | 30.8% | 20.8% | 60.0% | 41.7% |
| TSLA | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp | 60.7% | 38.2% | 32.8% | 23.1% | 32.0% |
AMZN wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 AMZN shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-04 ($5,679) and the worst was 2026-06 (−$3,230).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$259 | — | $374 | $633 | $633 |
| 2024-11 | $1,890 | $2,149 | $2,511 | $621 | $1,698 |
| 2024-12 | $3,040 | $1,150 | $4,394 | $1,354 | $1,698 |
| 2025-01 | $4,869 | $1,829 | $4,916 | $47 | $1,698 |
| 2025-02 | $2,329 | −$2,540 | $5,307 | $2,978 | $3,332 |
| 2025-03 | $127 | −$2,202 | $5,307 | $5,180 | $5,180 |
| 2025-04 | −$457 | −$584 | $5,307 | $5,764 | $7,474 |
| 2025-05 | $1,602 | $2,059 | $5,307 | $3,705 | $7,474 |
| 2025-06 | $3,040 | $1,438 | $5,307 | $2,267 | $7,474 |
| 2025-07 | $4,512 | $1,472 | $5,307 | $795 | $7,474 |
| 2025-08 | $4,001 | −$511 | $5,307 | $1,306 | $7,474 |
| 2025-09 | $3,058 | −$943 | $5,307 | $2,249 | $7,474 |
| 2025-10 | $5,523 | $2,465 | $5,523 | $0 | $7,474 |
| 2025-11 | $4,423 | −$1,100 | $6,501 | $2,078 | $7,474 |
| 2025-12 | $4,183 | −$240 | $6,501 | $2,318 | $7,474 |
| 2026-01 | $5,031 | $848 | $6,501 | $1,470 | $7,474 |
| 2026-02 | $2,101 | −$2,930 | $6,501 | $4,400 | $7,474 |
| 2026-03 | $1,928 | −$173 | $6,501 | $4,573 | $7,474 |
| 2026-04 | $7,607 | $5,679 | $7,607 | $0 | $7,474 |
| 2026-05 | $8,165 | $558 | $8,600 | $435 | $7,474 |
| 2026-06 | $4,935 | −$3,230 | $8,600 | $3,665 | $7,474 |
| 2026-07 | $8,259 | $3,324 | $8,600 | $341 | $7,474 |
| 2026-08 | $7,078 | −$1,181 | $9,503 | $2,425 | $7,474 |
| 2026-09 | $6,016 | −$1,062 | $9,503 | $3,487 | $7,474 |
| 2026-10 | $6,101 | $85 | $9,503 | $3,402 | $7,474 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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