Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on NVDA, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -38.8 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 60.9% | 22.1% | -38.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 26.9% | 10.5% | -16.4 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 55.2% | 55.2% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 28.2% | 27.6% | -0.6 pp |
| Assignment rate | 25.0% | 46.2% | +21.2 pp |
| Call-away rate | 50.0% | 50.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Average cycle return | 5.1% | 0.9% | — |
| Sample cycles | 12 | 26 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The NVDA total-return delta of -38.8 pp ranks 37th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 60.9% against 55.2% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel beat holding the shares by 5.7 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMZN, GOOGL, META and TSLA, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 3 of 4; NVDA itself came in at -38.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for NVDA shows a put assignment rate of 33.3% and wheel P&L of $7,299 against $7,613 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | NVDA | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -38.8 pp | -1.4 pp | 37th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -0.6 pp | -1.3 pp | 24th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 22.1% | 14.4% | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 10.5% | 7.0% | 10th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 60.9% | 14.7% | 1st of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 27.6% | 20.8% | 29th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 50.0% | 39.1% | 6th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 26.9% | 7.1% | 1st of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 55.2% | 38.6% | 11th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 28.2% | 24.3% | 26th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 25.0% | 30.8% | 24th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 46.2% | 32.0% | 1st of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 26 | 27 | 20th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.9% | 0.5% | 12th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 60.9% | 22.1% | -38.8 pp | 55.2% | 28.2% | 27.6% | 25.0% | 46.2% |
| AMZN | 3.0% | 8.8% | +5.8 pp | 32.3% | 24.1% | 20.6% | 41.7% | 36.4% |
| GOOGL | 21.0% | 35.2% | +14.3 pp | 108.4% | 24.7% | 21.6% | 21.4% | 23.3% |
| META | 34.4% | 21.7% | -12.7 pp | 23.0% | 30.8% | 20.8% | 60.0% | 41.7% |
| TSLA | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp | 60.7% | 38.2% | 32.8% | 23.1% | 32.0% |
NVDA wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 NVDA shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2025-05 ($2,621) and the worst was 2025-11 (−$2,549).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$524 | — | $571 | $1,095 | $1,095 |
| 2024-11 | $25 | $549 | $1,088 | $1,063 | $1,354 |
| 2024-12 | −$371 | −$396 | $1,088 | $1,459 | $1,997 |
| 2025-01 | −$1,793 | −$1,422 | $1,143 | $2,936 | $3,101 |
| 2025-02 | −$1,308 | $485 | $1,143 | $2,451 | $3,277 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,962 | −$1,654 | $1,143 | $4,105 | $4,245 |
| 2025-04 | −$2,908 | $54 | $1,143 | $4,051 | $5,512 |
| 2025-05 | −$287 | $2,621 | $1,143 | $1,430 | $5,512 |
| 2025-06 | $1,999 | $2,286 | $1,999 | $0 | $5,512 |
| 2025-07 | $3,987 | $1,988 | $4,127 | $140 | $5,512 |
| 2025-08 | $3,618 | −$369 | $4,516 | $898 | $5,512 |
| 2025-09 | $4,858 | $1,240 | $4,858 | $0 | $5,512 |
| 2025-10 | $6,449 | $1,591 | $6,904 | $455 | $5,512 |
| 2025-11 | $3,900 | −$2,549 | $6,904 | $3,004 | $5,512 |
| 2025-12 | $4,850 | $950 | $6,904 | $2,054 | $5,512 |
| 2026-01 | $5,313 | $463 | $6,904 | $1,591 | $5,512 |
| 2026-02 | $3,919 | −$1,394 | $6,904 | $2,985 | $5,512 |
| 2026-03 | $3,640 | −$279 | $6,904 | $3,264 | $5,512 |
| 2026-04 | $6,157 | $2,517 | $7,861 | $1,704 | $5,512 |
| 2026-05 | $7,314 | $1,157 | $9,774 | $2,460 | $5,512 |
| 2026-06 | $6,209 | −$1,105 | $9,774 | $3,565 | $5,512 |
| 2026-07 | $6,275 | $66 | $9,774 | $3,499 | $5,512 |
| 2026-08 | $8,278 | $2,003 | $9,774 | $1,496 | $5,512 |
| 2026-09 | $9,038 | $760 | $9,774 | $736 | $5,512 |
| 2026-10 | $7,613 | −$1,425 | $10,124 | $2,511 | $5,512 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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