Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $2933.67 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $4991.67 vs $2058.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $2058.00 | $4991.67 |
| Largest drop | $2757.00 | $1725.55 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (49 trades, 6 cycles).
Simulated premium was $4,742. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was $250. Combined realized P&L was $4,992.
Puts were assigned on 18.2% of put trades (6 of 33). Calls were assigned away on 31.2% of call trades (5 of 16).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($4,992) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($2,058) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $1,726 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,726, from the 2025-03-25 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-05-02. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $2,757 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $2,757, from the 2024-11-29 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-05-19.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 470 of 500 days (94.0%). Its widest lead was $1,586 on 2025-12-01; its widest deficit was −$660 on 2026-03-02.
Wheel P&L peaked at $4,560 on 2026-08-14 and bottomed at −$1,346 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $4,442 on 2026-08-14 and bottomed at −$2,567 on 2025-04-08.
Of 49 priced entries, 25 used historical option bars, and 24 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $104 | — | $190 | −$86 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024-12 | −$374 | −$478 | −$1,033 | $659 | $514 | $1,223 |
| 2025-01 | $49 | $423 | −$374 | $423 | $136 | $564 |
| 2025-02 | $119 | $70 | −$576 | $695 | $66 | $766 |
| 2025-03 | $119 | $0 | −$1,102 | $1,221 | $261 | $1,292 |
| 2025-04 | $270 | $151 | −$1,087 | $1,357 | $110 | $1,277 |
| 2025-05 | $558 | $288 | $73 | $485 | $190 | $145 |
| 2025-06 | $1,246 | $689 | $543 | $703 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $1,380 | $134 | $992 | $388 | $0 | $298 |
| 2025-08 | $1,730 | $350 | $992 | $738 | $0 | $298 |
| 2025-09 | $1,908 | $178 | $1,214 | $694 | $0 | $76 |
| 2025-10 | $2,516 | $608 | $1,297 | $1,219 | $73 | $73 |
| 2025-11 | $2,437 | −$79 | $1,160 | $1,277 | $152 | $210 |
| 2025-12 | $2,673 | $236 | $1,303 | $1,370 | $0 | $261 |
| 2026-01 | $2,787 | $114 | $2,335 | $452 | $0 | $146 |
| 2026-02 | $3,021 | $234 | $3,505 | −$484 | $0 | $9 |
| 2026-03 | $2,186 | −$835 | $1,964 | $222 | $835 | $1,717 |
| 2026-04 | $3,387 | $1,201 | $3,249 | $138 | $0 | $432 |
| 2026-05 | $3,774 | $387 | $3,104 | $670 | $0 | $577 |
| 2026-06 | $4,252 | $478 | $4,314 | −$62 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-07 | $4,483 | $231 | $3,775 | $708 | $0 | $572 |
| 2026-08 | $4,560 | $77 | $3,304 | $1,256 | $0 | $1,138 |
| 2026-09 | $3,431 | −$1,129 | $2,489 | $942 | $1,129 | $1,953 |
| 2026-10 | $3,732 | $301 | $2,531 | $1,201 | $828 | $1,911 |
| 2026-11 | $3,259 | −$473 | $2,058 | $1,201 | $1,301 | $2,384 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XLI is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 95.0% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its index and broad sector ETF peers DIA, IWM, QQQ and SPY, XLI sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 11.9%. 1 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did XLI.
| Metric | XLI | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 18.2% | 31.0% | 40th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $4,742 | $10,128 | 34th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $4,992 | $2,828 | 17th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $2,058 | $3,901 | 30th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $2,934 | −$495 | 6th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 25 bar / 24 HV
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