Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $329.27 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $683.27 vs $354.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $354.00 | $683.27 |
| Largest drop | $848.00 | $582.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 5 cycles).
Simulated premium was $1,583. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$900. Combined realized P&L was $683.
Puts were assigned on 20.0% of put trades (5 of 25). Calls were assigned away on 19.2% of call trades (5 of 26).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($683) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($354) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $582 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $582, from the 2026-06-25 peak to the 2026-09-28 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $848 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $848, from the 2026-02-27 peak to the 2026-09-28 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 485 of 500 days (97.0%). Its widest lead was $553 on 2026-08-06; its widest deficit was −$146 on 2024-11-29.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,043 on 2026-06-25 and bottomed at −$193 on 2024-12-18. Buy-and-hold peaked at $814 on 2026-02-27 and bottomed at −$304 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 10 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 23 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $42 | — | $188 | −$146 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024-12 | −$142 | −$184 | −$174 | $32 | $184 | $362 |
| 2025-01 | −$13 | $129 | −$65 | $52 | $55 | $253 |
| 2025-02 | $77 | $91 | $2 | $75 | $53 | $186 |
| 2025-03 | $139 | $61 | −$17 | $156 | $0 | $205 |
| 2025-04 | $177 | $38 | −$14 | $191 | $20 | $202 |
| 2025-05 | $275 | $99 | $137 | $138 | $0 | $51 |
| 2025-06 | $336 | $61 | $124 | $212 | $0 | $64 |
| 2025-07 | $403 | $67 | $325 | $78 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-08 | $548 | $145 | $257 | $291 | $0 | $150 |
| 2025-09 | $676 | $128 | $402 | $274 | $0 | $5 |
| 2025-10 | $790 | $114 | $496 | $294 | $0 | $190 |
| 2025-11 | $935 | $145 | $573 | $362 | $0 | $113 |
| 2025-12 | $704 | −$231 | $310 | $394 | $231 | $376 |
| 2026-01 | $821 | $117 | $366 | $455 | $114 | $320 |
| 2026-02 | $918 | $97 | $814 | $104 | $17 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $876 | −$42 | $630 | $246 | $101 | $184 |
| 2026-04 | $1,032 | $156 | $726 | $306 | $0 | $88 |
| 2026-05 | $856 | −$176 | $483 | $373 | $176 | $331 |
| 2026-06 | $874 | $18 | $575 | $299 | $169 | $239 |
| 2026-07 | $932 | $58 | $476 | $456 | $111 | $338 |
| 2026-08 | $699 | −$233 | $264 | $435 | $344 | $550 |
| 2026-09 | $480 | −$219 | −$15 | $495 | $563 | $829 |
| 2026-10 | $683 | $203 | $384 | $299 | $360 | $430 |
| 2026-11 | $683 | $0 | $354 | $329 | $360 | $460 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XLU is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 231.7% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers LLY, TLT, UNH and XLV, XLU sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 31.6%. 1 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did XLU.
| Metric | XLU | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 20.0% | 31.0% | 37th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $1,583 | $10,128 | 43rd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $683 | $2,828 | 36th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $354 | $3,901 | 37th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $329 | −$495 | 17th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 10 IV / 23 bar / 18 HV
Everything you need to know about getting started
