Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $3077.51 ahead of the wheel (lost less: $-22166.00 vs $-25243.51).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $-22166.00 | $-25243.51 |
| Largest drop | $38748.00 | $37208.45 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 9 cycles).
Simulated premium was $32,256. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$57,500. Combined realized P&L was −$25,244.
Puts were assigned on 32.1% of put trades (9 of 28). Calls were assigned away on 39.1% of call trades (9 of 23).
This simulation’s wheel P&L (−$25,244) trailed buy-and-hold P&L (−$22,166) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $37,208 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $37,208, from the 2024-12-04 peak to the 2025-08-01 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $38,748 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $38,748, from the 2024-11-11 peak to the 2025-08-01 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 195 of 500 days (39.0%). Its widest lead was $13,479 on 2025-04-24; its widest deficit was −$9,533 on 2026-07-09.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,767 on 2024-12-04 and bottomed at −$35,442 on 2025-08-01. Buy-and-hold peaked at $944 on 2024-11-11 and bottomed at −$37,804 on 2025-08-01.
Of 51 priced entries, 27 used historical option bars, and 24 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $1,708 | — | −$561 | $2,269 | $0 | $1,505 |
| 2024-12 | −$7,450 | −$9,158 | −$10,995 | $3,545 | $9,217 | $11,939 |
| 2025-01 | −$3,399 | $4,051 | −$7,332 | $3,933 | $5,166 | $8,276 |
| 2025-02 | −$8,332 | −$4,933 | −$14,085 | $5,753 | $10,099 | $15,029 |
| 2025-03 | −$6,416 | $1,915 | −$9,206 | $2,790 | $8,183 | $10,150 |
| 2025-04 | −$22,285 | −$15,869 | −$20,437 | −$1,848 | $24,052 | $21,381 |
| 2025-05 | −$31,743 | −$9,458 | −$31,390 | −$353 | $33,510 | $32,334 |
| 2025-06 | −$30,579 | $1,164 | −$30,384 | −$195 | $32,346 | $31,328 |
| 2025-07 | −$34,263 | −$3,684 | −$36,625 | $2,363 | $36,029 | $37,569 |
| 2025-08 | −$32,464 | $1,799 | −$30,594 | −$1,870 | $34,230 | $31,538 |
| 2025-09 | −$30,395 | $2,069 | −$27,051 | −$3,344 | $32,161 | $27,995 |
| 2025-10 | −$28,528 | $1,867 | −$27,425 | −$1,103 | $30,294 | $28,369 |
| 2025-11 | −$30,101 | −$1,573 | −$28,604 | −$1,497 | $31,867 | $29,548 |
| 2025-12 | −$29,786 | $315 | −$28,570 | −$1,216 | $31,552 | $29,514 |
| 2026-01 | −$32,303 | −$2,517 | −$32,888 | $585 | $34,069 | $33,832 |
| 2026-02 | −$30,610 | $1,693 | −$32,254 | $1,644 | $32,376 | $33,198 |
| 2026-03 | −$30,642 | −$32 | −$34,522 | $3,880 | $32,408 | $35,466 |
| 2026-04 | −$30,029 | $613 | −$24,533 | −$5,496 | $31,795 | $25,477 |
| 2026-05 | −$29,161 | $868 | −$23,550 | −$5,611 | $30,927 | $24,494 |
| 2026-06 | −$27,946 | $1,215 | −$20,018 | −$7,928 | $29,712 | $20,962 |
| 2026-07 | −$26,424 | $1,522 | −$20,141 | −$6,283 | $28,190 | $21,085 |
| 2026-08 | −$27,468 | −$1,044 | −$22,640 | −$4,828 | $29,234 | $23,584 |
| 2026-09 | −$28,776 | −$1,308 | −$24,873 | −$3,903 | $30,542 | $25,817 |
| 2026-10 | −$25,244 | $3,532 | −$20,884 | −$4,360 | $27,010 | $21,828 |
| 2026-11 | −$25,244 | $0 | −$22,166 | −$3,078 | $27,010 | $23,110 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. UNH is not one of them.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers HYG, TLT, VNQ and XLV, UNH sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 29.7%. 3 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while UNH did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for UNH uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -10.0 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | UNH | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 32.1% | 31.0% | 21st of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $32,256 | $10,128 | 8th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | −$25,244 | $2,828 | 45th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | −$22,166 | $3,901 | 45th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$3,078 | −$495 | 36th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNH | 32.1% | $32,256 | −$25,244 | −$22,166 | Wheel behind |
| HYG | 12.1% | $382 | $382 | −$257 | Wheel ahead |
| TLT | 33.3% | $1,277 | −$223 | −$1,057 | Wheel ahead |
| VNQ | 40.0% | $2,580 | $1,080 | −$15 | Wheel ahead |
| XLV | 26.1% | $3,529 | $2,029 | $3,462 | Wheel behind |
UNH 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 27 bar / 24 HV
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