Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $1433.20 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $3462.00 vs $2028.80).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $3462.00 | $2028.80 |
| Largest drop | $2141.00 | $1799.12 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (50 trades, 6 cycles).
Simulated premium was $3,529. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$1,500. Combined realized P&L was $2,029.
Puts were assigned on 26.1% of put trades (6 of 23). Calls were assigned away on 22.2% of call trades (6 of 27).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($2,029) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($3,462) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $1,799 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,799, from the 2025-02-25 peak to the 2025-05-14 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-11-07. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $2,141 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $2,141, from the 2024-11-08 peak to the 2025-05-14 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-11-11.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 435 of 500 days (87.0%). Its widest lead was $1,565 on 2025-09-25; its widest deficit was −$1,919 on 2026-11-04.
Wheel P&L peaked at $2,029 on 2026-10-23 and bottomed at −$1,464 on 2025-05-14. Buy-and-hold peaked at $3,948 on 2026-11-04 and bottomed at −$2,141 on 2025-05-14.
Of 50 priced entries, 26 used historical option bars, and 24 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $58 | — | −$277 | $335 | $0 | $277 |
| 2024-12 | −$888 | −$947 | −$1,261 | $373 | $947 | $1,261 |
| 2025-01 | −$104 | $785 | −$331 | $227 | $255 | $331 |
| 2025-02 | $196 | $300 | −$125 | $321 | $139 | $125 |
| 2025-03 | $124 | −$72 | −$417 | $541 | $211 | $417 |
| 2025-04 | −$380 | −$505 | −$971 | $591 | $716 | $971 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,031 | −$650 | −$1,754 | $723 | $1,366 | $1,754 |
| 2025-06 | −$722 | $309 | −$1,539 | $817 | $1,057 | $1,539 |
| 2025-07 | −$745 | −$23 | −$1,975 | $1,230 | $1,080 | $1,975 |
| 2025-08 | −$98 | $647 | −$1,275 | $1,177 | $433 | $1,275 |
| 2025-09 | $18 | $116 | −$1,101 | $1,119 | $317 | $1,101 |
| 2025-10 | $230 | $212 | −$593 | $823 | $105 | $593 |
| 2025-11 | $583 | $353 | $747 | −$164 | $0 | $112 |
| 2025-12 | $633 | $50 | $462 | $171 | $125 | $397 |
| 2026-01 | $777 | $144 | $456 | $321 | $398 | $492 |
| 2026-02 | $1,436 | $659 | $1,002 | $434 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $799 | −$637 | −$357 | $1,156 | $717 | $1,359 |
| 2026-04 | $812 | $13 | −$419 | $1,231 | $704 | $1,421 |
| 2026-05 | $851 | $39 | −$71 | $922 | $665 | $1,073 |
| 2026-06 | $1,191 | $340 | $848 | $343 | $325 | $208 |
| 2026-07 | $1,465 | $274 | $1,237 | $228 | $51 | $471 |
| 2026-08 | $1,717 | $252 | $2,036 | −$319 | $0 | $514 |
| 2026-09 | $1,817 | $100 | $1,824 | −$7 | $0 | $726 |
| 2026-10 | $2,029 | $212 | $3,469 | −$1,440 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-11 | $2,029 | $0 | $3,462 | −$1,433 | $0 | $486 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XLV is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 173.9% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers HYG, O, TLT and VNQ, XLV sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 36.6%. 4 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while XLV did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for XLV uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +4.1 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | XLV | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 26.1% | 31.0% | 28th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $3,529 | $10,128 | 35th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $2,029 | $2,828 | 28th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $3,462 | $3,901 | 26th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$1,433 | −$495 | 30th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLV | 26.1% | $3,529 | $2,029 | $3,462 | Wheel behind |
| HYG | 12.1% | $382 | $382 | −$257 | Wheel ahead |
| O | 41.7% | $1,629 | $879 | $153 | Wheel ahead |
| TLT | 33.3% | $1,277 | −$223 | −$1,057 | Wheel ahead |
| VNQ | 40.0% | $2,580 | $1,080 | −$15 | Wheel ahead |
XLV 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 26 bar / 24 HV
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