Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $9417.87 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $11541.00 vs $2123.13).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $11541.00 | $2123.13 |
| Largest drop | $8660.00 | $7253.12 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 9 cycles).
Simulated premium was $13,623. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$11,500. Combined realized P&L was $2,123.
Puts were assigned on 30.0% of put trades (9 of 30). Calls were assigned away on 42.9% of call trades (9 of 21).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($2,123) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($11,541) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $7,253 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $7,253, from the 2024-12-20 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-08-08. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $8,660 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $8,660, from the 2024-12-26 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-10-20.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 70 of 500 days (14.0%). Its widest lead was $1,371 on 2025-08-04; its widest deficit was −$10,132 on 2026-11-04.
Wheel P&L peaked at $3,617 on 2026-07-09 and bottomed at −$6,420 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $12,255 on 2026-11-04 and bottomed at −$5,454 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 7 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 17 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $317 | — | $1,037 | −$720 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024-12 | $833 | $516 | $2,346 | −$1,513 | $0 | $860 |
| 2025-01 | −$1,224 | −$2,057 | $904 | −$2,128 | $2,057 | $2,302 |
| 2025-02 | −$584 | $639 | $1,488 | −$2,072 | $1,418 | $1,718 |
| 2025-03 | −$1,449 | −$864 | −$483 | −$966 | $2,282 | $3,689 |
| 2025-04 | −$2,568 | −$1,119 | −$1,446 | −$1,122 | $3,401 | $4,652 |
| 2025-05 | −$2,422 | $146 | −$2,611 | $189 | $3,255 | $5,817 |
| 2025-06 | −$1,364 | $1,058 | −$2,179 | $815 | $2,198 | $5,385 |
| 2025-07 | −$1,090 | $274 | −$1,939 | $849 | $1,924 | $5,145 |
| 2025-08 | −$562 | $529 | $518 | −$1,080 | $2,569 | $2,688 |
| 2025-09 | −$42 | $520 | $2,767 | −$2,809 | $2,049 | $439 |
| 2025-10 | $1,062 | $1,104 | $4,341 | −$3,279 | $945 | $103 |
| 2025-11 | $1,648 | $586 | $5,189 | −$3,541 | $359 | $0 |
| 2025-12 | $1,728 | $80 | $4,490 | −$2,762 | $279 | $1,433 |
| 2026-01 | $154 | −$1,574 | $3,252 | −$3,098 | $1,853 | $2,671 |
| 2026-02 | $549 | $395 | $3,722 | −$3,173 | $1,458 | $2,201 |
| 2026-03 | $359 | −$190 | $2,683 | −$2,324 | $1,648 | $3,240 |
| 2026-04 | $657 | $298 | $4,439 | −$3,782 | $1,350 | $1,484 |
| 2026-05 | $1,195 | $538 | $8,510 | −$7,315 | $812 | $45 |
| 2026-06 | $931 | −$264 | $6,240 | −$5,309 | $1,076 | $2,584 |
| 2026-07 | $1,259 | $328 | $8,195 | −$6,936 | $2,358 | $3,117 |
| 2026-08 | $1,054 | −$205 | $8,989 | −$7,935 | $2,563 | $2,323 |
| 2026-09 | $1,556 | $502 | $10,606 | −$9,050 | $2,061 | $805 |
| 2026-10 | $2,123 | $567 | $11,767 | −$9,644 | $1,494 | $428 |
| 2026-11 | $2,123 | $0 | $11,541 | −$9,418 | $1,494 | $714 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. AAPL is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 641.7% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT and NVDA, AAPL sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 33.9%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while AAPL did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for AAPL uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +9.6 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | AAPL | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 30.0% | 31.0% | 25th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $13,623 | $10,128 | 20th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $2,123 | $2,828 | 26th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $11,541 | $3,901 | 7th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$9,418 | −$495 | 44th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL | 30.0% | $13,623 | $2,123 | $11,541 | Wheel behind |
| AMZN | 44.0% | $17,497 | $6,497 | $5,112 | Wheel ahead |
| GOOGL | 34.5% | $19,771 | $6,271 | $10,643 | Wheel behind |
| MSFT | 20.0% | $27,041 | $5,541 | $10,807 | Wheel behind |
| NVDA | 33.3% | $18,215 | $9,215 | $3,901 | Wheel ahead |
AAPL 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 7 IV / 27 bar / 17 HV
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