Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on GOOGL, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +14.3 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 21.0% | 35.2% | +14.3 pp |
| Annualized return | 10.0% | 16.3% | +6.3 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 108.4% | 108.4% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 24.7% | 21.6% | -3.1 pp |
| Assignment rate | 21.4% | 23.3% | +1.9 pp |
| Call-away rate | 40.0% | 33.3% | -6.7 pp |
| Average cycle return | 1.5% | 1.2% | — |
| Sample cycles | 14 | 30 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 19 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 53% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The GOOGL total-return delta of +14.3 pp ranks 7th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 21.0% against 108.4% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 87.4 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, AVGO, META and TSLA, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 2 of 4; GOOGL itself came in at +14.3 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for GOOGL shows a put assignment rate of 31.0% and wheel P&L of $10,617 against $17,717 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | GOOGL | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +14.3 pp | -1.4 pp | 7th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -3.1 pp | -1.3 pp | 16th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 35.2% | 14.4% | 5th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 16.3% | 7.0% | 5th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 21.0% | 14.7% | 13th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 21.6% | 20.8% | 20th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 33.3% | 39.1% | 29th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 10.0% | 7.1% | 13th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 108.4% | 38.6% | 4th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 24.7% | 24.3% | 21st of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 21.4% | 30.8% | 30th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 23.3% | 32.0% | 26th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 30 | 27 | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.2% | 0.5% | 6th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 21.0% | 35.2% | +14.3 pp | 108.4% | 24.7% | 21.6% | 21.4% | 23.3% |
| AMD | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp | 239.0% | 35.5% | 36.1% | 57.1% | 37.5% |
| AVGO | 37.6% | 25.1% | -12.5 pp | 82.8% | 45.1% | 24.7% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
| META | 34.4% | 21.7% | -12.7 pp | 23.0% | 30.8% | 20.8% | 60.0% | 41.7% |
| TSLA | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp | 60.7% | 38.2% | 32.8% | 23.1% | 32.0% |
GOOGL wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 GOOGL shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-04 ($9,724) and the worst was 2025-02 (−$3,374).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | $769 | — | $1,104 | $335 | $335 |
| 2024-11 | $553 | −$216 | $1,820 | $1,267 | $1,686 |
| 2024-12 | $2,588 | $2,035 | $3,324 | $736 | $1,686 |
| 2025-01 | $4,060 | $1,472 | $4,060 | $0 | $1,686 |
| 2025-02 | $686 | −$3,374 | $4,296 | $3,610 | $3,788 |
| 2025-03 | −$878 | −$1,564 | $4,296 | $5,174 | $5,205 |
| 2025-04 | −$462 | $416 | $4,296 | $4,758 | $6,168 |
| 2025-05 | $832 | $1,294 | $4,296 | $3,464 | $6,168 |
| 2025-06 | $1,281 | $449 | $4,296 | $3,015 | $6,168 |
| 2025-07 | $2,848 | $1,567 | $4,296 | $1,448 | $6,168 |
| 2025-08 | $4,949 | $2,101 | $4,949 | $0 | $6,168 |
| 2025-09 | $7,968 | $3,019 | $9,130 | $1,162 | $6,168 |
| 2025-10 | $11,777 | $3,809 | $11,806 | $29 | $6,168 |
| 2025-11 | $15,676 | $3,899 | $16,002 | $326 | $6,168 |
| 2025-12 | $14,958 | −$718 | $16,002 | $1,044 | $6,168 |
| 2026-01 | $17,458 | $2,500 | $17,483 | $25 | $6,168 |
| 2026-02 | $14,834 | −$2,624 | $18,027 | $3,193 | $6,168 |
| 2026-03 | $12,414 | −$2,420 | $18,027 | $5,613 | $7,019 |
| 2026-04 | $22,138 | $9,724 | $22,138 | $0 | $7,019 |
| 2026-05 | $21,692 | −$446 | $23,920 | $2,228 | $7,019 |
| 2026-06 | $19,395 | −$2,297 | $23,920 | $4,525 | $7,019 |
| 2026-07 | $19,271 | −$124 | $23,920 | $4,649 | $8,493 |
| 2026-08 | $17,593 | −$1,678 | $23,920 | $6,327 | $8,493 |
| 2026-09 | $18,066 | $473 | $23,920 | $5,854 | $8,493 |
| 2026-10 | $17,717 | −$349 | $23,920 | $6,203 | $8,493 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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