Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on AMD, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +17.8 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 17.5% | 24.9% | +7.4 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 239.0% | 239.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 35.5% | 36.1% | +0.5 pp |
| Assignment rate | 57.1% | 37.5% | -19.6 pp |
| Call-away rate | 40.0% | 34.8% | -5.2 pp |
| Average cycle return | 5.4% | 2.3% | — |
| Sample cycles | 7 | 24 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 17 | 47 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 47% | 49% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 49% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The AMD total-return delta of +17.8 pp ranks 5th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 38.0% against 239.0% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 201.0 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, AVGO, ORCL and SMH, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 2 of 4; AMD itself came in at +17.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for AMD shows a put assignment rate of 38.5% and wheel P&L of $16,977 against $37,278 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | AMD | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +17.8 pp | -1.4 pp | 5th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | +0.5 pp | -1.3 pp | 31st of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 55.9% | 14.4% | 1st of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 24.9% | 7.0% | 1st of 37 |
| Standard total return | 38.0% | 14.7% | 3rd of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 36.1% | 20.8% | 35th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 34.8% | 39.1% | 23rd of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 17.5% | 7.1% | 3rd of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 239.0% | 38.6% | 1st of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 35.5% | 24.3% | 33rd of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 57.1% | 30.8% | 6th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 37.5% | 32.0% | 12th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 24 | 27 | 26th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 2.3% | 0.5% | 1st of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp | 239.0% | 35.5% | 36.1% | 57.1% | 37.5% |
| AAPL | 30.5% | 7.5% | -23.0 pp | 46.2% | 28.0% | 26.8% | 36.4% | 32.1% |
| AVGO | 37.6% | 25.1% | -12.5 pp | 82.8% | 45.1% | 24.7% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
| ORCL | -36.2% | -17.3% | +18.9 pp | -26.6% | 63.9% | 51.3% | 71.4% | 42.9% |
| SMH | 39.6% | 43.4% | +3.8 pp | 114.6% | 30.8% | 22.2% | 30.8% | 21.2% |
AMD wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 AMD shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-05 ($16,161) and the worst was 2026-07 (−$10,476).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$1,190 | — | $1,028 | $2,218 | $2,218 |
| 2024-11 | −$1,879 | −$689 | $1,028 | $2,907 | $3,135 |
| 2024-12 | −$3,518 | −$1,639 | $1,028 | $4,546 | $4,737 |
| 2025-01 | −$4,002 | −$484 | $1,028 | $5,030 | $5,208 |
| 2025-02 | −$5,611 | −$1,609 | $1,028 | $6,639 | $6,674 |
| 2025-03 | −$5,323 | $288 | $1,028 | $6,351 | $6,962 |
| 2025-04 | −$5,862 | −$539 | $1,028 | $6,890 | $8,804 |
| 2025-05 | −$4,524 | $1,338 | $1,028 | $5,552 | $8,804 |
| 2025-06 | −$1,407 | $3,117 | $1,028 | $2,435 | $8,804 |
| 2025-07 | $2,034 | $3,441 | $2,354 | $320 | $8,804 |
| 2025-08 | $666 | −$1,368 | $2,845 | $2,179 | $8,804 |
| 2025-09 | $582 | −$84 | $2,845 | $2,263 | $8,804 |
| 2025-10 | $10,015 | $9,433 | $10,836 | $821 | $8,804 |
| 2025-11 | $6,156 | −$3,859 | $10,836 | $4,680 | $8,804 |
| 2025-12 | $5,819 | −$337 | $10,836 | $5,017 | $8,804 |
| 2026-01 | $8,076 | $2,257 | $10,836 | $2,760 | $8,804 |
| 2026-02 | $4,424 | −$3,652 | $10,836 | $6,412 | $8,804 |
| 2026-03 | $4,746 | $322 | $10,836 | $6,090 | $8,804 |
| 2026-04 | $19,852 | $15,106 | $19,852 | $0 | $8,804 |
| 2026-05 | $36,013 | $16,161 | $36,212 | $199 | $8,804 |
| 2026-06 | $42,494 | $6,481 | $42,494 | $0 | $9,012 |
| 2026-07 | $32,018 | −$10,476 | $42,494 | $10,476 | $15,135 |
| 2026-08 | $31,475 | −$543 | $42,494 | $11,019 | $15,135 |
| 2026-09 | $45,579 | $14,104 | $47,466 | $1,887 | $15,135 |
| 2026-10 | $37,278 | −$8,301 | $49,345 | $12,067 | $15,135 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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