Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23.
Two paired wheel simulations on AVGO, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +6.8 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 29.3% | 36.2% | +6.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 13.8% | 16.7% | +3.0 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 85.9% | 85.9% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 44.9% | 26.6% | -18.3 pp |
| Assignment rate | 55.6% | 33.3% | -22.3 pp |
| Call-away rate | 50.0% | 52.9% | +2.9 pp |
| Average cycle return | 3.3% | 1.2% | — |
| Sample cycles | 9 | 30 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 17 | 47 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 47% | 49% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 49% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 16 and behind on 21. The AVGO total-return delta of +6.8 pp ranks 9th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -0.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 29.3% against 85.9% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 56.6 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, MSFT, ORCL and SMH, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 3 of 4; AVGO itself came in at +6.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for AVGO shows a put assignment rate of 34.5% and wheel P&L of $25,530 against $14,868 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | AVGO | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +6.8 pp | -0.4 pp | 9th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -18.3 pp | -1.7 pp | 1st of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 36.2% | 16.8% | 6th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 16.7% | 8.1% | 6th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 29.3% | 19.6% | 8th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 26.6% | 19.0% | 26th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 52.9% | 42.1% | 5th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 13.8% | 9.4% | 8th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 85.9% | 42.2% | 7th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 44.9% | 20.2% | 35th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 55.6% | 33.3% | 4th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 33.3% | 31.0% | 12th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 30 | 28 | 11th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.2% | 0.6% | 6th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 29.3% | 36.2% | +6.8 pp | 85.9% | 44.9% | 26.6% | 55.6% | 33.3% |
| AAPL | 26.5% | 19.1% | -7.5 pp | 50.3% | 26.7% | 15.0% | 27.3% | 32.3% |
| MSFT | 15.1% | 19.3% | +4.2 pp | 22.5% | 21.9% | 19.0% | 27.3% | 27.3% |
| ORCL | -38.8% | -11.3% | +27.4 pp | -27.3% | 63.9% | 52.2% | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| SMH | 38.3% | 60.4% | +22.1 pp | 108.4% | 26.3% | 19.9% | 15.4% | 24.2% |
AVGO wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 AVGO shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-04 ($10,792) and the worst was 2026-06 (−$6,902).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$323 | — | $624 | $947 | $947 |
| 2024-11 | −$1,092 | −$769 | $1,081 | $2,173 | $2,414 |
| 2024-12 | $5,884 | $6,976 | $7,700 | $1,816 | $3,168 |
| 2025-01 | $4,827 | −$1,057 | $7,700 | $2,873 | $4,787 |
| 2025-02 | $2,643 | −$2,184 | $7,700 | $5,057 | $5,220 |
| 2025-03 | −$557 | −$3,200 | $7,700 | $8,257 | $8,257 |
| 2025-04 | $1,947 | $2,504 | $7,700 | $5,753 | $10,371 |
| 2025-05 | $6,907 | $4,960 | $7,700 | $793 | $10,371 |
| 2025-06 | $10,265 | $3,358 | $10,265 | $0 | $10,371 |
| 2025-07 | $12,070 | $1,805 | $12,962 | $892 | $10,371 |
| 2025-08 | $12,439 | $369 | $13,983 | $1,544 | $10,371 |
| 2025-09 | $15,691 | $3,252 | $19,657 | $3,966 | $10,371 |
| 2025-10 | $19,663 | $3,972 | $21,298 | $1,635 | $10,371 |
| 2025-11 | $22,996 | $3,333 | $22,996 | $0 | $10,371 |
| 2025-12 | $17,310 | −$5,686 | $23,997 | $6,687 | $10,371 |
| 2026-01 | $15,830 | −$1,480 | $23,997 | $8,167 | $10,371 |
| 2026-02 | $14,655 | −$1,175 | $23,997 | $9,342 | $10,492 |
| 2026-03 | $13,651 | −$1,004 | $23,997 | $10,346 | $11,956 |
| 2026-04 | $24,443 | $10,792 | $24,976 | $533 | $11,956 |
| 2026-05 | $27,377 | $2,934 | $27,377 | $0 | $11,956 |
| 2026-06 | $20,475 | −$6,902 | $30,857 | $10,382 | $11,956 |
| 2026-07 | $21,628 | $1,153 | $30,857 | $9,229 | $12,112 |
| 2026-08 | $19,734 | −$1,894 | $30,857 | $11,123 | $12,598 |
| 2026-09 | $17,819 | −$1,915 | $30,857 | $13,038 | $14,230 |
| 2026-10 | $14,868 | −$2,951 | $30,857 | $15,989 | $15,989 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23, refreshed 2026-10-25.
Everything you need to know about getting started
