Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on ORCL, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +18.9 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | -36.2% | -17.3% | +18.9 pp |
| Annualized return | -20.1% | -9.1% | +11.1 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | -26.6% | -26.6% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 63.9% | 51.3% | -12.6 pp |
| Assignment rate | 71.4% | 42.9% | -28.5 pp |
| Call-away rate | 40.0% | 34.6% | -5.4 pp |
| Average cycle return | -5.2% | -0.8% | — |
| Sample cycles | 7 | 21 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 17 | 47 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 47% | 49% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 51% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The ORCL total-return delta of +18.9 pp ranks 4th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned -36.2% against -26.6% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 9.6 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, MSFT, NVDA and SMH, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 1 of 4; ORCL itself came in at +18.9 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for ORCL shows a put assignment rate of 43.5% and wheel P&L of −$7,614 against −$4,646 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | ORCL | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +18.9 pp | -1.4 pp | 4th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -12.6 pp | -1.3 pp | 2nd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | -17.3% | 14.4% | 36th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | -9.1% | 7.0% | 36th of 37 |
| Standard total return | -36.2% | 14.7% | 37th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 51.3% | 20.8% | 37th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 34.6% | 39.1% | 28th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | -20.1% | 7.1% | 37th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | -26.6% | 38.6% | 36th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 63.9% | 24.3% | 37th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 71.4% | 30.8% | 2nd of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 42.9% | 32.0% | 3rd of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 21 | 27 | 33rd of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | -0.8% | 0.5% | 36th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | -36.2% | -17.3% | +18.9 pp | -26.6% | 63.9% | 51.3% | 71.4% | 42.9% |
| AAPL | 30.5% | 7.5% | -23.0 pp | 46.2% | 28.0% | 26.8% | 36.4% | 32.1% |
| MSFT | 12.0% | 3.4% | -8.6 pp | 26.5% | 24.7% | 19.5% | 33.3% | 23.1% |
| NVDA | 60.9% | 22.1% | -38.8 pp | 55.2% | 28.2% | 27.6% | 25.0% | 46.2% |
| SMH | 39.6% | 43.4% | +3.8 pp | 114.6% | 30.8% | 22.2% | 30.8% | 21.2% |
ORCL wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 ORCL shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-05 ($6,439) and the worst was 2026-06 (−$7,923).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$685 | — | $62 | $747 | $747 |
| 2024-11 | $1,015 | $1,700 | $1,774 | $759 | $973 |
| 2024-12 | −$805 | −$1,820 | $1,774 | $2,579 | $2,702 |
| 2025-01 | −$463 | $342 | $1,774 | $2,237 | $3,851 |
| 2025-02 | −$863 | −$400 | $1,774 | $2,637 | $3,851 |
| 2025-03 | −$3,488 | −$2,625 | $1,774 | $5,262 | $5,262 |
| 2025-04 | −$3,397 | $91 | $1,774 | $5,171 | $6,961 |
| 2025-05 | −$916 | $2,481 | $1,774 | $2,690 | $6,961 |
| 2025-06 | $4,394 | $5,310 | $4,394 | $0 | $6,961 |
| 2025-07 | $7,908 | $3,514 | $7,908 | $0 | $6,961 |
| 2025-08 | $5,144 | −$2,764 | $8,174 | $3,030 | $6,961 |
| 2025-09 | $10,655 | $5,511 | $15,364 | $4,709 | $6,961 |
| 2025-10 | $8,792 | −$1,863 | $15,364 | $6,572 | $7,144 |
| 2025-11 | $2,726 | −$6,066 | $15,364 | $12,638 | $13,130 |
| 2025-12 | $2,022 | −$704 | $15,364 | $13,342 | $14,987 |
| 2026-01 | −$1,011 | −$3,033 | $15,364 | $16,375 | $16,375 |
| 2026-02 | −$2,929 | −$1,918 | $15,364 | $18,293 | $19,185 |
| 2026-03 | −$2,758 | $171 | $15,364 | $18,122 | $19,185 |
| 2026-04 | −$1,330 | $1,428 | $15,364 | $16,694 | $19,185 |
| 2026-05 | $5,109 | $6,439 | $15,364 | $10,255 | $19,185 |
| 2026-06 | −$2,814 | −$7,923 | $15,364 | $18,178 | $19,185 |
| 2026-07 | −$4,482 | −$1,668 | $15,364 | $19,846 | $21,334 |
| 2026-08 | −$2,557 | $1,925 | $15,364 | $17,921 | $21,334 |
| 2026-09 | −$3,739 | −$1,182 | $15,364 | $19,103 | $21,334 |
| 2026-10 | −$4,646 | −$907 | $15,364 | $20,010 | $21,334 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
Everything you need to know about getting started
