Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $8992.96 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $30109.00 vs $21116.04).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $30109.00 | $21116.04 |
| Largest drop | $24502.00 | $19975.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 7 cycles).
Simulated premium was $40,866. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$19,750. Combined realized P&L was $21,116.
Puts were assigned on 25.9% of put trades (7 of 27). Calls were assigned away on 25.0% of call trades (6 of 24).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($21,116) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($30,109) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $19,975 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $19,975, from the 2026-10-02 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $24,502 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $24,502, from the 2026-10-06 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 159 of 500 days (31.8%). Its widest lead was $5,109 on 2025-04-08; its widest deficit was −$30,616 on 2026-10-06.
Wheel P&L peaked at $19,531 on 2026-10-02 and bottomed at −$3,292 on 2025-04-21. Buy-and-hold peaked at $50,147 on 2026-10-06 and bottomed at −$6,974 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 24 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, and 27 used historical option bars. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$310 | — | −$1,077 | $767 | $564 | $1,077 |
| 2024-12 | −$1,371 | −$1,061 | −$2,716 | $1,345 | $1,742 | $2,716 |
| 2025-01 | −$1,315 | $56 | −$3,200 | $1,885 | $1,686 | $3,200 |
| 2025-02 | −$2,389 | −$1,073 | −$4,809 | $2,420 | $2,760 | $4,809 |
| 2025-03 | −$1,865 | $524 | −$4,521 | $2,656 | $2,236 | $4,521 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,730 | $135 | −$5,060 | $3,330 | $2,101 | $5,060 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,276 | $454 | −$3,722 | $2,446 | $1,648 | $3,722 |
| 2025-06 | −$946 | $330 | −$605 | −$341 | $1,318 | $605 |
| 2025-07 | −$260 | $687 | $2,836 | −$3,096 | $631 | $320 |
| 2025-08 | −$764 | −$504 | $1,468 | −$2,232 | $1,237 | $2,179 |
| 2025-09 | $261 | $1,025 | $1,384 | −$1,123 | $212 | $2,263 |
| 2025-10 | $2,389 | $2,128 | $10,817 | −$8,428 | $5,249 | $821 |
| 2025-11 | $657 | −$1,732 | $6,958 | −$6,301 | $6,981 | $4,680 |
| 2025-12 | $1,370 | $713 | $6,621 | −$5,251 | $6,268 | $5,017 |
| 2026-01 | $3,959 | $2,589 | $8,878 | −$4,919 | $3,679 | $2,760 |
| 2026-02 | $1,725 | −$2,234 | $5,226 | −$3,501 | $5,913 | $6,412 |
| 2026-03 | $3,551 | $1,826 | $5,548 | −$1,997 | $4,087 | $6,090 |
| 2026-04 | $6,011 | $2,460 | $20,654 | −$14,643 | $1,627 | $0 |
| 2026-05 | $10,108 | $4,097 | $36,815 | −$26,707 | $0 | $199 |
| 2026-06 | $14,683 | $4,575 | $43,296 | −$28,613 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-07 | $13,231 | −$1,452 | $32,820 | −$19,589 | $4,075 | $10,476 |
| 2026-08 | $15,618 | $2,387 | $32,277 | −$16,659 | $3,017 | $11,019 |
| 2026-09 | $18,041 | $2,423 | $46,381 | −$28,340 | $594 | $1,887 |
| 2026-10 | $9,596 | −$8,445 | $35,685 | −$26,089 | $9,935 | $14,462 |
| 2026-11 | $4,020 | −$5,576 | $30,109 | −$26,089 | $15,511 | $20,038 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. AMD is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 193.5% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, AVGO, ORCL and SMH, AMD sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 32.9%. 3 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while AMD did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for AMD uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +64.2 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | AMD | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 25.9% | 31.0% | 29th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $40,866 | $10,128 | 5th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $21,116 | $2,828 | 3rd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $30,109 | $3,901 | 2nd of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$8,993 | −$495 | 43rd of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | 25.9% | $40,866 | $21,116 | $30,109 | Wheel behind |
| AAPL | 30.0% | $13,623 | $2,123 | $11,541 | Wheel behind |
| AVGO | 35.7% | $41,127 | $25,877 | $11,005 | Wheel ahead |
| ORCL | 50.0% | $25,322 | −$5,678 | −$7,315 | Wheel ahead |
| SMH | 25.7% | $38,510 | $28,010 | $20,462 | Wheel ahead |
AMD 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 24 IV / 27 bar
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