Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-04 to 2026-10-02.
This page is a published historical simulation for TSLA — two paired wheel runs, identical inputs, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +32.3 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | -1.3% | 31.0% | +32.3 pp |
| Annualized return | -0.6% | 14.5% | +15.1 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 48.2% | 48.2% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 37.3% | 32.8% | -4.5 pp |
| Assignment rate | 40.0% | 37.5% | -2.5 pp |
| Call-away rate | 50.0% | 37.5% | -12.5 pp |
| Average cycle return | -0.1% | 1.3% | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Drawdown
Standard max drawdown 37.3% vs rule 32.8% (-4.5 pp).
Assignment
Assignment rate 40.0% standard vs 37.5% rule; call-away 50.0% vs 37.5%.
Fallbacks
The rule arm held 0 of 48 short options to expiry because no 21 DTE price was available for the buy-back.
Data quality
Real option bars priced 50% of the standard arm's entry fills, 50% of the 21-Day arm's, and 52% of its 21 DTE buy-backs. The rest are modelled from implied or realized volatility.
One ticker and one window cannot prove a rule works everywhere
Simulated fills can differ from what a real order would have gotten
The rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE and falls back to expiry
A stale or failed refresh removes this page instead of updating it
On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +32.3 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
Standard max drawdown 37.3% vs rule 32.8% (-4.5 pp).
Assignment rate 40.0% standard vs 37.5% rule; call-away 50.0% vs 37.5%.
Period 2024-10-04 to 2026-10-02, refreshed 2026-10-04. This page disappears when the data goes stale.
The table below lists both arms metric by metric, with the rule delta signed — positive means the rule finished ahead.
Fallback counts, missing-pricing counts, and data-quality status come from the stored run and stay visible.
Open the gated wheel backtest for TSLA and change DTE, OTM, dates, or the management rule itself.
Standard total return
-1.3%
21-Day total return
31.0%
Rule delta
+32.3 pp
Real-bar entry fills (21-Day arm)
50%
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