Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on TSLA, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +3.8 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 16.5% | 18.1% | +1.6 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 60.7% | 60.7% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 38.2% | 32.8% | -5.4 pp |
| Assignment rate | 23.1% | 32.0% | +8.9 pp |
| Call-away rate | 40.0% | 34.8% | -5.2 pp |
| Average cycle return | 2.7% | 1.6% | — |
| Sample cycles | 13 | 25 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The TSLA total-return delta of +3.8 pp ranks 13th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 35.7% against 60.7% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 25.0 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, AVGO, ORCL and SMH, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 3 of 4; TSLA itself came in at +3.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for TSLA shows a put assignment rate of 30.4% and wheel P&L of $8,171 against $13,402 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | TSLA | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +3.8 pp | -1.4 pp | 13th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -5.4 pp | -1.3 pp | 8th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 39.5% | 14.4% | 4th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 18.1% | 7.0% | 4th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 35.7% | 14.7% | 6th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 32.8% | 20.8% | 34th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 34.8% | 39.1% | 23rd of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 16.5% | 7.1% | 6th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 60.7% | 38.6% | 10th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 38.2% | 24.3% | 34th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 23.1% | 30.8% | 26th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 32.0% | 32.0% | 19th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 25 | 27 | 23rd of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.6% | 0.5% | 3rd of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp | 60.7% | 38.2% | 32.8% | 23.1% | 32.0% |
| AMD | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp | 239.0% | 35.5% | 36.1% | 57.1% | 37.5% |
| AVGO | 37.6% | 25.1% | -12.5 pp | 82.8% | 45.1% | 24.7% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
| ORCL | -36.2% | -17.3% | +18.9 pp | -26.6% | 63.9% | 51.3% | 71.4% | 42.9% |
| SMH | 39.6% | 43.4% | +3.8 pp | 114.6% | 30.8% | 22.2% | 30.8% | 21.2% |
TSLA wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 TSLA shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2025-09 ($11,085) and the worst was 2025-02 (−$11,162).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | $2,915 | — | $4,849 | $1,934 | $1,934 |
| 2024-11 | $12,446 | $9,531 | $13,186 | $740 | $3,882 |
| 2024-12 | $18,314 | $5,868 | $25,916 | $7,602 | $7,602 |
| 2025-01 | $18,390 | $76 | $25,916 | $7,526 | $10,058 |
| 2025-02 | $7,228 | −$11,162 | $25,916 | $18,688 | $19,791 |
| 2025-03 | $3,846 | −$3,382 | $25,916 | $22,070 | $25,771 |
| 2025-04 | $6,146 | $2,300 | $25,916 | $19,770 | $25,800 |
| 2025-05 | $12,576 | $6,430 | $25,916 | $13,340 | $25,800 |
| 2025-06 | $9,696 | −$2,880 | $25,916 | $16,220 | $25,800 |
| 2025-07 | $8,757 | −$939 | $25,916 | $17,159 | $25,800 |
| 2025-08 | $11,317 | $2,560 | $25,916 | $14,599 | $25,800 |
| 2025-09 | $22,402 | $11,085 | $25,916 | $3,514 | $25,800 |
| 2025-10 | $23,586 | $1,184 | $25,916 | $2,330 | $25,800 |
| 2025-11 | $20,947 | −$2,639 | $25,916 | $4,969 | $25,800 |
| 2025-12 | $22,902 | $1,955 | $26,918 | $4,016 | $25,800 |
| 2026-01 | $20,971 | −$1,931 | $26,918 | $5,947 | $25,800 |
| 2026-02 | $18,181 | −$2,790 | $26,918 | $8,737 | $25,800 |
| 2026-03 | $15,105 | −$3,076 | $26,918 | $11,813 | $25,800 |
| 2026-04 | $16,093 | $988 | $26,918 | $10,825 | $25,800 |
| 2026-05 | $21,509 | $5,416 | $26,918 | $5,409 | $25,800 |
| 2026-06 | $19,990 | −$1,519 | $26,918 | $6,928 | $25,800 |
| 2026-07 | $9,051 | −$10,939 | $26,918 | $17,867 | $25,800 |
| 2026-08 | $14,725 | $5,674 | $26,918 | $12,193 | $25,800 |
| 2026-09 | $13,411 | −$1,314 | $26,918 | $13,507 | $25,800 |
| 2026-10 | $13,402 | −$9 | $26,918 | $13,516 | $25,800 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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