Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $1384.55 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $6496.55 vs $5112.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $5112.00 | $6496.55 |
| Largest drop | $7474.00 | $6506.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 11 cycles).
Simulated premium was $17,497. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$11,000. Combined realized P&L was $6,497.
Puts were assigned on 44.0% of put trades (11 of 25). Calls were assigned away on 38.5% of call trades (10 of 26).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($6,497) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($5,112) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $6,506 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $6,506, from the 2026-08-03 peak to the 2026-09-16 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $7,474 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $7,474, from the 2025-02-04 peak to the 2025-04-21 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-10-31.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 158 of 500 days (31.6%). Its widest lead was $5,035 on 2026-02-12; its widest deficit was −$3,354 on 2026-05-06.
Wheel P&L peaked at $8,793 on 2026-08-03 and bottomed at −$3,687 on 2025-04-21. Buy-and-hold peaked at $7,584 on 2026-08-03 and bottomed at −$4,086 on 2025-04-21.
Of 51 priced entries, 10 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 14 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $812 | — | −$29 | $841 | $0 | $621 |
| 2024-12 | $969 | $156 | $1,121 | −$152 | $1,110 | $1,354 |
| 2025-01 | $1,872 | $903 | $2,950 | −$1,078 | $207 | $47 |
| 2025-02 | −$122 | −$1,994 | $410 | −$532 | $2,200 | $2,978 |
| 2025-03 | −$1,697 | −$1,575 | −$1,792 | $95 | $3,775 | $5,180 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,616 | $80 | −$2,376 | $760 | $3,695 | $5,764 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,024 | $593 | −$317 | −$707 | $3,102 | $3,705 |
| 2025-06 | $334 | $1,358 | $1,121 | −$787 | $1,744 | $2,267 |
| 2025-07 | $383 | $48 | $2,593 | −$2,210 | $1,695 | $795 |
| 2025-08 | $505 | $123 | $2,082 | −$1,577 | $1,573 | $1,306 |
| 2025-09 | $593 | $87 | $1,139 | −$546 | $1,486 | $2,249 |
| 2025-10 | $4,062 | $3,469 | $3,604 | $458 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-11 | $2,173 | −$1,889 | $2,504 | −$331 | $2,867 | $2,078 |
| 2025-12 | $2,413 | $240 | $2,264 | $149 | $2,627 | $2,318 |
| 2026-01 | $3,346 | $933 | $3,112 | $234 | $1,694 | $1,470 |
| 2026-02 | $992 | −$2,354 | $182 | $810 | $4,048 | $4,400 |
| 2026-03 | $2,504 | $1,512 | $9 | $2,495 | $2,536 | $4,573 |
| 2026-04 | $3,327 | $823 | $5,688 | −$2,361 | $1,715 | $0 |
| 2026-05 | $3,887 | $560 | $6,246 | −$2,359 | $1,155 | $435 |
| 2026-06 | $2,633 | −$1,254 | $3,016 | −$383 | $2,409 | $3,665 |
| 2026-07 | $7,549 | $4,916 | $6,340 | $1,209 | $0 | $341 |
| 2026-08 | $3,258 | −$4,291 | $5,159 | −$1,901 | $5,535 | $2,425 |
| 2026-09 | $2,905 | −$353 | $4,097 | −$1,192 | $5,888 | $3,487 |
| 2026-10 | $3,032 | $127 | $3,217 | −$185 | $5,761 | $4,367 |
| 2026-11 | $4,927 | $1,895 | $5,112 | −$185 | $3,866 | $2,472 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. AMZN is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 269.3% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, GOOGL, META and TSLA, AMZN sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 40.1%. 1 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did AMZN.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for AMZN uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -2.0 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | AMZN | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 44.0% | 31.0% | 4th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $17,497 | $10,128 | 15th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $6,497 | $2,828 | 12th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $5,112 | $3,901 | 19th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $1,385 | −$495 | 10th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN | 44.0% | $17,497 | $6,497 | $5,112 | Wheel ahead |
| AMD | 25.9% | $40,866 | $21,116 | $30,109 | Wheel behind |
| GOOGL | 34.5% | $19,771 | $6,271 | $10,643 | Wheel behind |
| META | 58.3% | $53,482 | −$3,518 | $2,081 | Wheel behind |
| TSLA | 45.8% | $54,804 | $14,304 | $3,700 | Wheel ahead |
AMZN 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 10 IV / 27 bar / 14 HV
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