Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on META, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -12.7 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 34.4% | 21.7% | -12.7 pp |
| Annualized return | 16.0% | 10.3% | -5.6 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 23.0% | 23.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 30.8% | 20.8% | -10.1 pp |
| Assignment rate | 60.0% | 41.7% | -18.3 pp |
| Call-away rate | 71.4% | 37.5% | -33.9 pp |
| Average cycle return | 3.4% | 0.9% | — |
| Sample cycles | 10 | 24 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 17 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 47% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 50% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The META total-return delta of -12.7 pp ranks 30th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 34.4% against 23.0% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel beat holding the shares by 11.3 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, AVGO, ORCL and TSLA, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 3 of 4; META itself came in at -12.7 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for META shows a put assignment rate of 33.3% and wheel P&L of $1,588 against $13,285 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | META | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -12.7 pp | -1.4 pp | 30th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -10.1 pp | -1.3 pp | 3rd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 21.7% | 14.4% | 13th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 10.3% | 7.0% | 13th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 34.4% | 14.7% | 7th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 20.8% | 20.8% | 19th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 37.5% | 39.1% | 21st of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 16.0% | 7.1% | 7th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 23.0% | 38.6% | 25th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 30.8% | 24.3% | 29th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 60.0% | 30.8% | 5th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 41.7% | 32.0% | 5th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 24 | 27 | 26th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.9% | 0.5% | 11th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 34.4% | 21.7% | -12.7 pp | 23.0% | 30.8% | 20.8% | 60.0% | 41.7% |
| AMD | 38.0% | 55.9% | +17.8 pp | 239.0% | 35.5% | 36.1% | 57.1% | 37.5% |
| AVGO | 37.6% | 25.1% | -12.5 pp | 82.8% | 45.1% | 24.7% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
| ORCL | -36.2% | -17.3% | +18.9 pp | -26.6% | 63.9% | 51.3% | 71.4% | 42.9% |
| TSLA | 35.7% | 39.5% | +3.8 pp | 60.7% | 38.2% | 32.8% | 23.1% | 32.0% |
META wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 META shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-09 ($15,284) and the worst was 2025-03 (−$9,184).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$889 | — | $1,681 | $2,570 | $2,570 |
| 2024-11 | −$215 | $674 | $1,681 | $1,896 | $3,920 |
| 2024-12 | $904 | $1,119 | $5,621 | $4,717 | $4,743 |
| 2025-01 | $11,271 | $10,367 | $11,271 | $0 | $4,743 |
| 2025-02 | $9,173 | −$2,098 | $16,020 | $6,847 | $7,917 |
| 2025-03 | −$11 | −$9,184 | $16,020 | $16,031 | $16,031 |
| 2025-04 | −$2,747 | −$2,736 | $16,020 | $18,767 | $25,201 |
| 2025-05 | $7,102 | $9,849 | $16,020 | $8,918 | $25,201 |
| 2025-06 | $16,162 | $9,060 | $16,162 | $0 | $25,201 |
| 2025-07 | $19,697 | $3,535 | $19,697 | $0 | $25,201 |
| 2025-08 | $16,223 | −$3,474 | $21,353 | $5,130 | $25,201 |
| 2025-09 | $15,791 | −$432 | $21,353 | $5,562 | $25,201 |
| 2025-10 | $7,188 | −$8,603 | $21,353 | $14,165 | $25,201 |
| 2025-11 | $7,148 | −$40 | $21,353 | $14,205 | $25,201 |
| 2025-12 | $8,362 | $1,214 | $21,353 | $12,991 | $25,201 |
| 2026-01 | $14,003 | $5,641 | $21,353 | $7,350 | $25,201 |
| 2026-02 | $7,171 | −$6,832 | $21,353 | $14,182 | $25,201 |
| 2026-03 | −$434 | −$7,605 | $21,353 | $21,787 | $26,428 |
| 2026-04 | $3,544 | $3,978 | $21,353 | $17,809 | $26,428 |
| 2026-05 | $5,604 | $2,060 | $21,353 | $15,749 | $26,428 |
| 2026-06 | −$1,318 | −$6,922 | $21,353 | $22,671 | $26,428 |
| 2026-07 | −$1,976 | −$658 | $21,353 | $23,329 | $26,428 |
| 2026-08 | −$413 | $1,563 | $21,353 | $21,766 | $26,428 |
| 2026-09 | $14,871 | $15,284 | $21,353 | $6,482 | $26,428 |
| 2026-10 | $13,285 | −$1,586 | $21,353 | $8,068 | $26,428 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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