Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $14871.54 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $25876.54 vs $11005.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $11005.00 | $25876.54 |
| Largest drop | $19004.00 | $13510.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 10 cycles).
Simulated premium was $41,127. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$15,250. Combined realized P&L was $25,877.
Puts were assigned on 35.7% of put trades (10 of 28). Calls were assigned away on 39.1% of call trades (9 of 23).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($25,877) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($11,005) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $13,510 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $13,510, from the 2026-06-02 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $19,004 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $19,004, from the 2026-06-02 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 124 of 500 days (24.8%). Its widest lead was $3,947 on 2026-08-19; its widest deficit was −$12,351 on 2025-09-12.
Wheel P&L peaked at $26,540 on 2026-06-02 and bottomed at −$4,162 on 2025-04-04. Buy-and-hold peaked at $29,793 on 2026-06-02 and bottomed at −$3,735 on 2025-04-04.
Of 51 priced entries, 14 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 10 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$911 | — | −$2,156 | $1,245 | $1,381 | $2,156 |
| 2024-12 | $618 | $1,529 | $4,820 | −$4,202 | $0 | $1,816 |
| 2025-01 | $881 | $262 | $3,763 | −$2,882 | $1,373 | $2,873 |
| 2025-02 | −$388 | −$1,269 | $1,579 | −$1,967 | $3,530 | $5,057 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,048 | −$1,659 | −$1,621 | −$427 | $5,189 | $8,257 |
| 2025-04 | −$880 | $1,168 | $883 | −$1,763 | $4,021 | $5,753 |
| 2025-05 | $384 | $1,264 | $5,843 | −$5,459 | $2,758 | $793 |
| 2025-06 | $1,415 | $1,032 | $9,201 | −$7,786 | $1,726 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $2,795 | $1,379 | $11,006 | −$8,211 | $347 | $892 |
| 2025-08 | $3,925 | $1,130 | $11,375 | −$7,450 | $261 | $1,544 |
| 2025-09 | $4,172 | $247 | $14,627 | −$10,455 | $7,558 | $3,966 |
| 2025-10 | $9,989 | $5,817 | $18,599 | −$8,610 | $1,741 | $1,635 |
| 2025-11 | $15,272 | $5,283 | $21,932 | −$6,660 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-12 | $10,578 | −$4,694 | $16,246 | −$5,668 | $4,694 | $6,687 |
| 2026-01 | $13,460 | $2,882 | $14,766 | −$1,306 | $1,812 | $8,167 |
| 2026-02 | $14,504 | $1,044 | $13,591 | $913 | $768 | $9,342 |
| 2026-03 | $16,432 | $1,928 | $12,587 | $3,845 | $2,027 | $10,346 |
| 2026-04 | $17,470 | $1,038 | $23,379 | −$5,909 | $3,502 | $533 |
| 2026-05 | $23,060 | $5,590 | $26,313 | −$3,253 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-06 | $18,392 | −$4,668 | $19,411 | −$1,019 | $8,148 | $10,382 |
| 2026-07 | $20,796 | $2,404 | $20,564 | $232 | $5,744 | $9,229 |
| 2026-08 | $18,235 | −$2,561 | $18,670 | −$435 | $8,305 | $11,123 |
| 2026-09 | $17,691 | −$544 | $16,755 | $936 | $8,849 | $13,038 |
| 2026-10 | $16,485 | −$1,206 | $14,244 | $2,241 | $10,055 | $15,549 |
| 2026-11 | $13,246 | −$3,239 | $11,005 | $2,241 | $13,294 | $18,788 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. AVGO is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 158.9% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, MSFT, ORCL and SMH, AVGO sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 27.9%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did AVGO.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for AVGO uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +12.1 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | AVGO | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 35.7% | 31.0% | 12th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $41,127 | $10,128 | 4th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $25,877 | $2,828 | 2nd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $11,005 | $3,901 | 8th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $14,872 | −$495 | 1st of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | 35.7% | $41,127 | $25,877 | $11,005 | Wheel ahead |
| AAPL | 30.0% | $13,623 | $2,123 | $11,541 | Wheel behind |
| MSFT | 20.0% | $27,041 | $5,541 | $10,807 | Wheel behind |
| ORCL | 50.0% | $25,322 | −$5,678 | −$7,315 | Wheel ahead |
| SMH | 25.7% | $38,510 | $28,010 | $20,462 | Wheel ahead |
AVGO 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 14 IV / 27 bar / 10 HV
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