Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on GDX, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -18.8 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 28.9% | 10.1% | -18.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 13.6% | 5.0% | -8.6 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 103.3% | 103.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 24.3% | 26.7% | +2.4 pp |
| Assignment rate | 16.7% | 39.3% | +22.6 pp |
| Call-away rate | 33.3% | 52.6% | +19.3 pp |
| Average cycle return | 2.4% | 0.4% | — |
| Sample cycles | 12 | 28 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 47 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 49% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 47% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The GDX total-return delta of -18.8 pp ranks 35th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 28.9% against 103.3% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 74.3 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its precious-metals peers AEM, GLD, NEM and WPM, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 2 of 4; GDX itself came in at -18.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for GDX shows a put assignment rate of 33.3% and wheel P&L of $2,013 against $4,456 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | GDX | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -18.8 pp | -1.4 pp | 35th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | +2.4 pp | -1.3 pp | 34th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 10.1% | 14.4% | 23rd of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 5.0% | 7.0% | 23rd of 37 |
| Standard total return | 28.9% | 14.7% | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 26.7% | 20.8% | 26th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 52.6% | 39.1% | 5th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 13.6% | 7.1% | 10th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 103.3% | 38.6% | 6th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 24.3% | 24.3% | 19th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 16.7% | 30.8% | 34th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 39.3% | 32.0% | 9th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 28 | 27 | 15th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.4% | 0.5% | 23rd of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDX | 28.9% | 10.1% | -18.8 pp | 103.3% | 24.3% | 26.7% | 16.7% | 39.3% |
| AEM | 31.3% | 35.0% | +3.8 pp | 119.9% | 28.9% | 28.2% | 23.1% | 37.9% |
| GLD | 15.7% | 11.8% | -3.9 pp | 52.0% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 30.8% | 17.1% |
| NEM | 16.2% | 9.8% | -6.4 pp | 105.8% | 31.1% | 31.6% | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| WPM | 11.9% | 49.4% | +37.5 pp | 101.8% | 33.8% | 29.8% | 25.0% | 38.5% |
GDX wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 GDX shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-08 ($2,441) and the worst was 2026-03 (−$2,407).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$281 | — | $94 | $375 | $375 |
| 2024-11 | −$549 | −$268 | $94 | $643 | $858 |
| 2024-12 | −$924 | −$375 | $94 | $1,018 | $1,032 |
| 2025-01 | −$419 | $505 | $94 | $513 | $1,032 |
| 2025-02 | −$343 | $76 | $94 | $437 | $1,032 |
| 2025-03 | $282 | $625 | $282 | $0 | $1,032 |
| 2025-04 | $586 | $304 | $876 | $290 | $1,032 |
| 2025-05 | $750 | $164 | $876 | $126 | $1,032 |
| 2025-06 | $891 | $141 | $1,131 | $240 | $1,032 |
| 2025-07 | $849 | −$42 | $1,133 | $284 | $1,032 |
| 2025-08 | $2,002 | $1,153 | $2,002 | $0 | $1,032 |
| 2025-09 | $3,325 | $1,323 | $3,325 | $0 | $1,032 |
| 2025-10 | $2,891 | −$434 | $4,129 | $1,238 | $1,453 |
| 2025-11 | $4,008 | $1,117 | $4,129 | $121 | $1,616 |
| 2025-12 | $4,262 | $254 | $4,814 | $552 | $1,616 |
| 2026-01 | $5,105 | $843 | $6,901 | $1,796 | $1,796 |
| 2026-02 | $7,269 | $2,164 | $7,269 | $0 | $1,972 |
| 2026-03 | $4,862 | −$2,407 | $7,269 | $2,407 | $3,572 |
| 2026-04 | $4,514 | −$348 | $7,269 | $2,755 | $3,572 |
| 2026-05 | $4,634 | $120 | $7,269 | $2,635 | $3,572 |
| 2026-06 | $3,230 | −$1,404 | $7,269 | $4,039 | $4,203 |
| 2026-07 | $3,095 | −$135 | $7,269 | $4,174 | $4,510 |
| 2026-08 | $5,536 | $2,441 | $7,269 | $1,733 | $4,510 |
| 2026-09 | $4,465 | −$1,071 | $7,269 | $2,804 | $4,510 |
| 2026-10 | $4,456 | −$9 | $7,269 | $2,813 | $4,510 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
Everything you need to know about getting started
