Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06.
Two paired wheel simulations on NEM, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +14.7 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 28.8% | 43.5% | +14.7 pp |
| Annualized return | 13.5% | 19.9% | +6.3 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 168.5% | 168.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 34.6% | 30.0% | -4.6 pp |
| Assignment rate | 45.5% | 26.9% | -18.6 pp |
| Call-away rate | 66.7% | 31.6% | -35.1 pp |
| Average cycle return | 2.6% | 1.7% | — |
| Sample cycles | 11 | 26 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 17 | 45 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 47% | 47% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 38% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 21 and behind on 16. The NEM total-return delta of +14.7 pp ranks 5th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is +2.0 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 28.8% against 168.5% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 139.6 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its precious-metals peers AEM, GLD, SLV and WPM, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 4 of 4; NEM itself came in at +14.7 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for NEM shows a put assignment rate of 42.3% and wheel P&L of $2,828 against $7,587 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | NEM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +14.7 pp | +2.0 pp | 5th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -4.6 pp | -0.6 pp | 8th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 43.5% | 16.0% | 4th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 19.9% | 7.7% | 4th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 28.8% | 15.0% | 11th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 30.0% | 19.0% | 29th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 31.6% | 42.1% | 28th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 13.5% | 7.2% | 11th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 168.5% | 26.4% | 2nd of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 34.6% | 20.8% | 30th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 45.5% | 36.4% | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 26.9% | 31.8% | 23rd of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 26 | 28 | 25th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.7% | 0.6% | 3rd of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEM | 28.8% | 43.5% | +14.7 pp | 168.5% | 34.6% | 30.0% | 45.5% | 26.9% |
| AEM | 32.3% | 45.3% | +12.9 pp | 128.5% | 33.3% | 32.4% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| GLD | 3.4% | 11.3% | +7.9 pp | 50.2% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 25.0% | 15.2% |
| SLV | 5.7% | 16.0% | +10.4 pp | 64.6% | 35.8% | 37.8% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
| WPM | 17.6% | 36.6% | +19.0 pp | 110.3% | 43.4% | 33.6% | 36.4% | 18.8% |
NEM wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 NEM shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-08 ($3,235) and the worst was 2026-03 (−$2,175).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$310 | — | $0 | $310 | $436 |
| 2024-12 | −$782 | −$472 | $0 | $782 | $804 |
| 2025-01 | −$232 | $550 | $0 | $232 | $804 |
| 2025-02 | −$220 | $12 | $305 | $525 | $804 |
| 2025-03 | $324 | $544 | $335 | $11 | $804 |
| 2025-04 | $764 | $440 | $1,091 | $327 | $804 |
| 2025-05 | $768 | $4 | $1,091 | $323 | $804 |
| 2025-06 | $1,322 | $554 | $1,442 | $120 | $804 |
| 2025-07 | $1,706 | $384 | $2,071 | $365 | $804 |
| 2025-08 | $2,936 | $1,230 | $2,936 | $0 | $804 |
| 2025-09 | $3,927 | $991 | $4,021 | $94 | $804 |
| 2025-10 | $3,593 | −$334 | $5,323 | $1,730 | $1,964 |
| 2025-11 | $4,569 | $976 | $5,323 | $754 | $1,964 |
| 2025-12 | $5,481 | $912 | $6,074 | $593 | $1,964 |
| 2026-01 | $6,731 | $1,250 | $8,691 | $1,960 | $1,964 |
| 2026-02 | $8,496 | $1,765 | $8,691 | $195 | $2,342 |
| 2026-03 | $6,321 | −$2,175 | $8,691 | $2,370 | $3,615 |
| 2026-04 | $6,605 | $284 | $8,691 | $2,086 | $3,615 |
| 2026-05 | $6,477 | −$128 | $8,691 | $2,214 | $3,615 |
| 2026-06 | $4,836 | −$1,641 | $8,691 | $3,855 | $3,918 |
| 2026-07 | $4,867 | $31 | $8,691 | $3,824 | $4,275 |
| 2026-08 | $8,102 | $3,235 | $9,010 | $908 | $4,275 |
| 2026-09 | $7,030 | −$1,072 | $9,010 | $1,980 | $4,275 |
| 2026-10 | $6,157 | −$873 | $9,010 | $2,853 | $4,275 |
| 2026-11 | $7,587 | $1,430 | $9,010 | $1,423 | $4,275 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06, refreshed 2026-11-08.
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