Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16.
Two paired wheel simulations on GLD, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -3.9 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 15.7% | 11.8% | -3.9 pp |
| Annualized return | 7.6% | 5.8% | -1.8 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 52.0% | 52.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 12.9% | 14.4% | +1.5 pp |
| Assignment rate | 30.8% | 17.1% | -13.7 pp |
| Call-away rate | 80.0% | 46.2% | -33.8 pp |
| Average cycle return | 1.2% | 0.3% | — |
| Sample cycles | 13 | 35 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 44% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 52% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 18 and behind on 19. The GLD total-return delta of -3.9 pp ranks 23rd of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -1.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 15.7% against 52.0% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 36.3 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its precious-metals peers AEM, GDX, NEM and SLV, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 1 of 4; GLD itself came in at -3.9 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for GLD shows a put assignment rate of 17.1% and wheel P&L of $4,653 against $13,074 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | GLD | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -3.9 pp | -1.4 pp | 23rd of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | +1.5 pp | -1.3 pp | 33rd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 11.8% | 14.4% | 21st of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 5.8% | 7.0% | 21st of 37 |
| Standard total return | 15.7% | 14.7% | 18th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 14.4% | 20.8% | 8th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 46.2% | 39.1% | 13th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 7.6% | 7.1% | 18th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 52.0% | 38.6% | 12th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 12.9% | 24.3% | 5th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 30.8% | 30.8% | 18th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 17.1% | 32.0% | 33rd of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 35 | 27 | 4th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.3% | 0.5% | 24th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 15.7% | 11.8% | -3.9 pp | 52.0% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 30.8% | 17.1% |
| AEM | 31.3% | 35.0% | +3.8 pp | 119.9% | 28.9% | 28.2% | 23.1% | 37.9% |
| GDX | 28.9% | 10.1% | -18.8 pp | 103.3% | 24.3% | 26.7% | 16.7% | 39.3% |
| NEM | 16.2% | 9.8% | -6.4 pp | 105.8% | 31.1% | 31.6% | 23.1% | 29.6% |
| SLV | 28.3% | 14.4% | -13.9 pp | 68.1% | 24.8% | 29.9% | 30.0% | 21.2% |
GLD wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 GLD shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-01 ($4,864) and the worst was 2026-03 (−$5,346).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | $224 | — | $623 | $399 | $399 |
| 2024-11 | −$568 | −$792 | $623 | $1,191 | $2,091 |
| 2024-12 | −$914 | −$346 | $623 | $1,537 | $2,091 |
| 2025-01 | $729 | $1,643 | $729 | $0 | $2,091 |
| 2025-02 | $1,200 | $471 | $2,094 | $894 | $2,091 |
| 2025-03 | $3,687 | $2,487 | $3,687 | $0 | $2,091 |
| 2025-04 | $5,250 | $1,563 | $6,432 | $1,182 | $2,091 |
| 2025-05 | $5,233 | −$17 | $6,432 | $1,199 | $2,243 |
| 2025-06 | $5,356 | $123 | $6,502 | $1,146 | $2,243 |
| 2025-07 | $5,169 | −$187 | $6,502 | $1,333 | $2,243 |
| 2025-08 | $6,680 | $1,511 | $6,680 | $0 | $2,243 |
| 2025-09 | $10,420 | $3,740 | $10,420 | $0 | $2,243 |
| 2025-10 | $11,685 | $1,265 | $15,188 | $3,503 | $4,015 |
| 2025-11 | $13,661 | $1,976 | $15,188 | $1,527 | $4,083 |
| 2025-12 | $14,504 | $843 | $16,547 | $2,043 | $4,083 |
| 2026-01 | $19,368 | $4,864 | $24,463 | $5,095 | $5,095 |
| 2026-02 | $23,248 | $3,880 | $24,463 | $1,215 | $6,877 |
| 2026-03 | $17,902 | −$5,346 | $24,463 | $6,561 | $9,526 |
| 2026-04 | $17,239 | −$663 | $24,463 | $7,224 | $9,526 |
| 2026-05 | $16,585 | −$654 | $24,463 | $7,878 | $9,526 |
| 2026-06 | $11,711 | −$4,874 | $24,463 | $12,752 | $12,998 |
| 2026-07 | $12,027 | $316 | $24,463 | $12,436 | $13,094 |
| 2026-08 | $15,715 | $3,688 | $24,463 | $8,748 | $13,094 |
| 2026-09 | $12,957 | −$2,758 | $24,463 | $11,506 | $13,094 |
| 2026-10 | $13,074 | $117 | $24,463 | $11,389 | $13,094 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-18 to 2026-10-16, refreshed 2026-10-18.
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