Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06.
Two paired wheel simulations on AEM, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +12.9 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 32.3% | 45.3% | +12.9 pp |
| Annualized return | 15.1% | 20.6% | +5.5 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 128.5% | 128.5% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 33.3% | 32.4% | -0.9 pp |
| Assignment rate | 13.3% | 16.7% | +3.4 pp |
| Call-away rate | 33.3% | 41.7% | +8.4 pp |
| Average cycle return | 2.2% | 1.3% | — |
| Sample cycles | 15 | 36 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 44% | 46% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 33% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 21 and behind on 16. The AEM total-return delta of +12.9 pp ranks 6th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is +2.0 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 32.3% against 128.5% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 96.2 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its precious-metals peers GDX, GLD, SLV and WPM, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 4 of 4; AEM itself came in at +12.9 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for AEM shows a put assignment rate of 15.4% and wheel P&L of $3,067 against $10,773 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | AEM | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +12.9 pp | +2.0 pp | 6th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | -0.9 pp | -0.6 pp | 17th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 45.3% | 16.0% | 3rd of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 20.6% | 7.7% | 3rd of 37 |
| Standard total return | 32.3% | 15.0% | 6th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 32.4% | 19.0% | 32nd of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 41.7% | 42.1% | 21st of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 15.1% | 7.2% | 6th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 128.5% | 26.4% | 3rd of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 33.3% | 20.8% | 29th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 13.3% | 36.4% | 35th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 16.7% | 31.8% | 32nd of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 36 | 28 | 2nd of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 1.3% | 0.6% | 7th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEM | 32.3% | 45.3% | +12.9 pp | 128.5% | 33.3% | 32.4% | 13.3% | 16.7% |
| GDX | 35.0% | 39.5% | +4.5 pp | 124.5% | 36.1% | 26.5% | 33.3% | 35.7% |
| GLD | 3.4% | 11.3% | +7.9 pp | 50.2% | 16.6% | 18.9% | 25.0% | 15.2% |
| SLV | 5.7% | 16.0% | +10.4 pp | 64.6% | 35.8% | 37.8% | 25.0% | 31.0% |
| WPM | 17.6% | 36.6% | +19.0 pp | 110.3% | 43.4% | 33.6% | 36.4% | 18.8% |
AEM wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 AEM shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-02 ($6,110) and the worst was 2026-03 (−$4,862).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $58 | — | $58 | $0 | $785 |
| 2024-12 | −$563 | −$621 | $351 | $914 | $999 |
| 2025-01 | $910 | $1,473 | $1,062 | $152 | $999 |
| 2025-02 | $1,244 | $334 | $1,697 | $453 | $999 |
| 2025-03 | $2,457 | $1,213 | $2,457 | $0 | $999 |
| 2025-04 | $3,374 | $917 | $3,963 | $589 | $999 |
| 2025-05 | $3,415 | $41 | $3,963 | $548 | $1,869 |
| 2025-06 | $3,509 | $94 | $4,062 | $553 | $1,869 |
| 2025-07 | $4,052 | $543 | $4,478 | $426 | $1,869 |
| 2025-08 | $6,033 | $1,981 | $6,033 | $0 | $1,869 |
| 2025-09 | $8,472 | $2,439 | $8,472 | $0 | $1,869 |
| 2025-10 | $7,697 | −$775 | $10,168 | $2,471 | $3,035 |
| 2025-11 | $9,059 | $1,362 | $10,168 | $1,109 | $3,035 |
| 2025-12 | $8,569 | −$490 | $10,168 | $1,599 | $3,035 |
| 2026-01 | $10,666 | $2,097 | $13,915 | $3,249 | $3,249 |
| 2026-02 | $16,776 | $6,110 | $16,776 | $0 | $3,354 |
| 2026-03 | $11,914 | −$4,862 | $16,835 | $4,921 | $7,306 |
| 2026-04 | $10,437 | −$1,477 | $16,835 | $6,398 | $7,306 |
| 2026-05 | $9,931 | −$506 | $16,835 | $6,904 | $7,879 |
| 2026-06 | $7,129 | −$2,802 | $16,835 | $9,706 | $9,971 |
| 2026-07 | $6,143 | −$986 | $16,835 | $10,692 | $11,585 |
| 2026-08 | $11,927 | $5,784 | $16,835 | $4,908 | $11,585 |
| 2026-09 | $9,943 | −$1,984 | $16,835 | $6,892 | $11,585 |
| 2026-10 | $8,154 | −$1,789 | $16,835 | $8,681 | $11,585 |
| 2026-11 | $10,773 | $2,619 | $16,835 | $6,062 | $11,585 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06, refreshed 2026-11-08.
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