Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $1400.38 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $12456.00 vs $11055.62).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $12456.00 | $11055.62 |
| Largest drop | $14012.00 | $9372.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 7 cycles).
Simulated premium was $14,556. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$3,500. Combined realized P&L was $11,056.
Puts were assigned on 21.9% of put trades (7 of 32). Calls were assigned away on 31.6% of call trades (6 of 19).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($11,056) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($12,456) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $9,372 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $9,372, from the 2026-02-27 peak to the 2026-10-30 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $14,012 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $14,012, from the 2026-01-29 peak to the 2026-10-30 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 97 of 500 days (19.4%). Its widest lead was $1,263 on 2024-11-15; its widest deficit was −$12,992 on 2026-01-29.
Wheel P&L peaked at $14,506 on 2026-02-27 and bottomed at −$220 on 2024-12-18. Buy-and-hold peaked at $24,794 on 2026-01-29 and bottomed at −$1,137 on 2024-11-15.
Of 51 priced entries, 24 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, and 27 used historical option bars. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $249 | — | −$237 | $486 | $0 | $425 |
| 2024-12 | $151 | −$99 | −$583 | $734 | $800 | $883 |
| 2025-01 | $1,866 | $1,715 | $1,060 | $806 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-02 | $2,537 | $671 | $1,531 | $1,006 | $607 | $894 |
| 2025-03 | $3,478 | $942 | $4,018 | −$540 | $414 | $0 |
| 2025-04 | $3,785 | $307 | $5,581 | −$1,796 | $108 | $1,182 |
| 2025-05 | $4,313 | $528 | $5,564 | −$1,251 | $0 | $1,199 |
| 2025-06 | $4,495 | $182 | $5,687 | −$1,192 | $0 | $1,146 |
| 2025-07 | $4,588 | $93 | $5,500 | −$912 | $0 | $1,333 |
| 2025-08 | $5,005 | $417 | $7,011 | −$2,006 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $5,292 | $286 | $10,751 | −$5,459 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-10 | $5,977 | $685 | $12,016 | −$6,039 | $0 | $3,503 |
| 2025-11 | $8,330 | $2,353 | $13,992 | −$5,662 | $0 | $1,527 |
| 2025-12 | $9,481 | $1,151 | $14,835 | −$5,354 | $183 | $2,043 |
| 2026-01 | $13,034 | $3,553 | $19,699 | −$6,665 | $0 | $5,095 |
| 2026-02 | $14,506 | $1,472 | $23,579 | −$9,073 | $0 | $1,215 |
| 2026-03 | $11,285 | −$3,221 | $18,233 | −$6,948 | $3,221 | $6,561 |
| 2026-04 | $11,568 | $283 | $17,570 | −$6,002 | $2,938 | $7,224 |
| 2026-05 | $11,522 | −$46 | $16,916 | −$5,394 | $2,984 | $7,878 |
| 2026-06 | $7,553 | −$3,969 | $12,042 | −$4,489 | $6,953 | $12,752 |
| 2026-07 | $8,957 | $1,404 | $12,358 | −$3,401 | $5,549 | $12,436 |
| 2026-08 | $9,757 | $800 | $16,046 | −$6,289 | $4,749 | $8,748 |
| 2026-09 | $7,016 | −$2,741 | $13,288 | −$6,272 | $7,490 | $11,506 |
| 2026-10 | $5,134 | −$1,882 | $10,782 | −$5,648 | $9,372 | $14,012 |
| 2026-11 | $6,808 | $1,674 | $12,456 | −$5,648 | $7,698 | $12,338 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. GLD is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 131.7% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its precious-metals peers AEM, GDX, NEM and SLV, GLD sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 33.9%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while GLD did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for GLD uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +7.9 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | GLD | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 21.9% | 31.0% | 33rd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $14,556 | $10,128 | 19th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $11,056 | $2,828 | 9th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $12,456 | $3,901 | 6th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$1,400 | −$495 | 29th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | 21.9% | $14,556 | $11,056 | $12,456 | Wheel behind |
| AEM | 15.4% | $16,317 | $3,067 | $10,773 | Wheel behind |
| GDX | 34.5% | $7,531 | $3,931 | $4,858 | Wheel behind |
| NEM | 42.3% | $10,128 | $2,828 | $7,587 | Wheel behind |
| SLV | 33.3% | $6,250 | $1,500 | $1,839 | Wheel behind |
GLD 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 24 IV / 27 bar
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