Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23.
Two paired wheel simulations on SLV, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished +17.3 pp ahead of holding to expiry.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | -4.3% | 13.0% | +17.3 pp |
| Annualized return | -2.2% | 6.3% | +8.5 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 59.1% | 59.1% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 30.3% | 34.0% | +3.8 pp |
| Assignment rate | 36.4% | 33.3% | -3.1 pp |
| Call-away rate | 42.9% | 40.0% | -2.9 pp |
| Average cycle return | -0.4% | 0.5% | — |
| Sample cycles | 11 | 27 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 47 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 49% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 47% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 16 and behind on 21. The SLV total-return delta of +17.3 pp ranks 5th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is -0.4 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned -4.3% against 59.1% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 63.4 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its precious-metals peers AEM, GDX, NEM and WPM, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 3 of 4; SLV itself came in at +17.3 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for SLV shows a put assignment rate of 37.9% and wheel P&L of $1,211 against $1,809 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | SLV | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | +17.3 pp | -0.4 pp | 5th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | +3.8 pp | -1.7 pp | 36th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 13.0% | 16.8% | 25th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 6.3% | 8.1% | 25th of 37 |
| Standard total return | -4.3% | 19.6% | 35th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 34.0% | 19.0% | 35th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 40.0% | 42.1% | 20th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | -2.2% | 9.4% | 35th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 59.1% | 42.2% | 9th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 30.3% | 20.2% | 28th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 36.4% | 33.3% | 16th of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 33.3% | 31.0% | 12th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 27 | 28 | 21st of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.5% | 0.6% | 23rd of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLV | -4.3% | 13.0% | +17.3 pp | 59.1% | 30.3% | 34.0% | 36.4% | 33.3% |
| AEM | 21.4% | 25.0% | +3.6 pp | 100.2% | 38.5% | 31.9% | 30.8% | 17.6% |
| GDX | 6.6% | 16.5% | +10.0 pp | 93.0% | 33.6% | 29.5% | 33.3% | 37.0% |
| NEM | 31.6% | 19.4% | -12.2 pp | 124.8% | 35.2% | 33.2% | 30.8% | 26.9% |
| WPM | 2.0% | 45.4% | +43.4 pp | 82.8% | 41.4% | 29.8% | 50.0% | 16.7% |
SLV wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 SLV shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2025-12 ($1,321) and the worst was 2026-03 (−$1,685).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10 | −$82 | — | $76 | $158 | $158 |
| 2024-11 | −$271 | −$189 | $76 | $347 | $394 |
| 2024-12 | −$430 | −$159 | $76 | $506 | $506 |
| 2025-01 | −$212 | $218 | $76 | $288 | $506 |
| 2025-02 | −$232 | −$20 | $76 | $308 | $506 |
| 2025-03 | $36 | $268 | $76 | $40 | $506 |
| 2025-04 | −$103 | −$139 | $76 | $179 | $506 |
| 2025-05 | −$63 | $40 | $76 | $139 | $506 |
| 2025-06 | $218 | $281 | $311 | $93 | $506 |
| 2025-07 | $269 | $51 | $509 | $240 | $506 |
| 2025-08 | $556 | $287 | $556 | $0 | $506 |
| 2025-09 | $1,174 | $618 | $1,187 | $13 | $506 |
| 2025-10 | $1,338 | $164 | $1,854 | $516 | $677 |
| 2025-11 | $2,058 | $720 | $2,058 | $0 | $677 |
| 2025-12 | $3,379 | $1,321 | $4,049 | $670 | $677 |
| 2026-01 | $4,481 | $1,102 | $7,497 | $3,016 | $3,016 |
| 2026-02 | $5,436 | $955 | $7,497 | $2,061 | $3,923 |
| 2026-03 | $3,751 | −$1,685 | $7,497 | $3,746 | $4,483 |
| 2026-04 | $3,603 | −$148 | $7,497 | $3,894 | $4,483 |
| 2026-05 | $3,770 | $167 | $7,497 | $3,727 | $4,483 |
| 2026-06 | $2,284 | −$1,486 | $7,497 | $5,213 | $5,382 |
| 2026-07 | $2,173 | −$111 | $7,497 | $5,324 | $5,521 |
| 2026-08 | $2,950 | $777 | $7,497 | $4,547 | $5,521 |
| 2026-09 | $2,388 | −$562 | $7,497 | $5,109 | $5,521 |
| 2026-10 | $1,809 | −$579 | $7,497 | $5,688 | $5,688 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-10-25 to 2026-10-23, refreshed 2026-10-25.
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