Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $4371.57 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $10643.00 vs $6271.43).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $10643.00 | $6271.43 |
| Largest drop | $12363.00 | $9182.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 10 cycles).
Simulated premium was $19,771. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$13,500. Combined realized P&L was $6,271.
Puts were assigned on 34.5% of put trades (10 of 29). Calls were assigned away on 40.9% of call trades (9 of 22).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($6,271) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($10,643) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $9,182 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $9,182, from the 2026-04-09 peak to the 2026-11-02 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $12,363 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $12,363, from the 2026-05-13 peak to the 2026-11-02 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 53 of 500 days (10.6%). Its widest lead was $1,282 on 2024-11-21; its widest deficit was −$16,148 on 2026-05-06.
Wheel P&L peaked at $8,352 on 2026-04-09 and bottomed at −$3,617 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $22,427 on 2026-05-13 and bottomed at −$3,365 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 11 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 13 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$172 | — | −$940 | $768 | $382 | $1,267 |
| 2024-12 | $354 | $526 | $1,095 | −$741 | $16 | $736 |
| 2025-01 | $1,085 | $732 | $2,567 | −$1,482 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-02 | −$1,682 | −$2,768 | −$807 | −$875 | $2,768 | $3,610 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,623 | −$941 | −$2,371 | −$252 | $3,709 | $5,174 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,807 | $816 | −$1,955 | $148 | $2,893 | $4,758 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,070 | $738 | −$661 | −$409 | $2,155 | $3,464 |
| 2025-06 | −$44 | $1,026 | −$212 | $168 | $1,129 | $3,015 |
| 2025-07 | −$464 | −$420 | $1,355 | −$1,819 | $1,549 | $1,448 |
| 2025-08 | $251 | $715 | $3,456 | −$3,205 | $834 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $735 | $484 | $6,475 | −$5,740 | $350 | $1,162 |
| 2025-10 | $2,820 | $2,085 | $10,284 | −$7,464 | $0 | $29 |
| 2025-11 | $3,965 | $1,145 | $14,183 | −$10,218 | $0 | $326 |
| 2025-12 | $4,514 | $549 | $13,465 | −$8,951 | $135 | $1,044 |
| 2026-01 | $6,339 | $1,825 | $15,965 | −$9,626 | $0 | $25 |
| 2026-02 | $4,690 | −$1,649 | $13,341 | −$8,651 | $1,649 | $3,193 |
| 2026-03 | $5,259 | $569 | $10,921 | −$5,662 | $1,080 | $5,613 |
| 2026-04 | $5,821 | $562 | $20,645 | −$14,824 | $2,531 | $0 |
| 2026-05 | $5,595 | −$226 | $20,199 | −$14,604 | $2,757 | $2,228 |
| 2026-06 | $4,606 | −$989 | $17,902 | −$13,296 | $3,746 | $4,525 |
| 2026-07 | $5,827 | $1,221 | $17,778 | −$11,951 | $2,525 | $4,649 |
| 2026-08 | $3,529 | −$2,298 | $16,100 | −$12,571 | $4,823 | $6,327 |
| 2026-09 | $5,039 | $1,510 | $16,573 | −$11,534 | $3,313 | $5,854 |
| 2026-10 | −$745 | −$5,784 | $10,149 | −$10,894 | $9,097 | $12,278 |
| 2026-11 | −$251 | $494 | $10,643 | −$10,894 | $8,603 | $11,784 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. GOOGL is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 315.3% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, AVGO, META and TSLA, GOOGL sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 40.8%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while GOOGL did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for GOOGL uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +11.1 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | GOOGL | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 34.5% | 31.0% | 15th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $19,771 | $10,128 | 13th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $6,271 | $2,828 | 14th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $10,643 | $3,901 | 12th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$4,372 | −$495 | 37th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | 34.5% | $19,771 | $6,271 | $10,643 | Wheel behind |
| AMD | 25.9% | $40,866 | $21,116 | $30,109 | Wheel behind |
| AVGO | 35.7% | $41,127 | $25,877 | $11,005 | Wheel ahead |
| META | 58.3% | $53,482 | −$3,518 | $2,081 | Wheel behind |
| TSLA | 45.8% | $54,804 | $14,304 | $3,700 | Wheel ahead |
GOOGL 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 11 IV / 27 bar / 13 HV
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