Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $5598.68 ahead of the wheel (buy & hold made money while the wheel lost).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $2081.00 | $-3517.68 |
| Largest drop | $26428.00 | $29610.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 14 cycles).
Simulated premium was $53,482. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$57,000. Combined realized P&L was −$3,518.
Puts were assigned on 58.3% of put trades (14 of 24). Calls were assigned away on 48.1% of call trades (13 of 27).
This simulation’s wheel P&L (−$3,518) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($2,081) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $29,610 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $29,610, from the 2026-01-29 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $26,428 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $26,428, from the 2025-08-12 peak to the 2026-03-27 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 91 of 500 days (18.2%). Its widest lead was $7,202 on 2025-11-06; its widest deficit was −$25,898 on 2026-09-24.
Wheel P&L peaked at $15,100 on 2026-01-29 and bottomed at −$14,510 on 2026-11-05. Buy-and-hold peaked at $20,066 on 2025-08-12 and bottomed at −$10,468 on 2025-04-21.
Of 51 priced entries, 10 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 14 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $1,569 | — | −$1,502 | $3,071 | $0 | $1,502 |
| 2024-12 | $2,145 | $576 | −$383 | $2,528 | $3,370 | $4,717 |
| 2025-01 | $8,514 | $6,369 | $9,984 | −$1,470 | $5,700 | $0 |
| 2025-02 | $5,441 | −$3,073 | $7,886 | −$2,445 | $8,773 | $6,847 |
| 2025-03 | −$1,259 | −$6,700 | −$1,298 | $39 | $15,473 | $16,031 |
| 2025-04 | −$2,992 | −$1,733 | −$4,034 | $1,042 | $17,206 | $18,767 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,001 | $1,990 | $5,815 | −$6,816 | $15,215 | $8,918 |
| 2025-06 | $5,822 | $6,823 | $14,875 | −$9,053 | $8,392 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $12,610 | $6,788 | $18,410 | −$5,800 | $1,604 | $0 |
| 2025-08 | $5,402 | −$7,207 | $14,936 | −$9,534 | $8,812 | $5,130 |
| 2025-09 | $7,675 | $2,273 | $14,504 | −$6,829 | $6,539 | $5,562 |
| 2025-10 | $10,162 | $2,487 | $5,901 | $4,261 | $4,052 | $14,165 |
| 2025-11 | $3,317 | −$6,845 | $5,861 | −$2,544 | $10,897 | $14,205 |
| 2025-12 | $2,404 | −$913 | $7,075 | −$4,671 | $11,810 | $12,991 |
| 2026-01 | $2,769 | $365 | $12,716 | −$9,947 | $12,331 | $7,350 |
| 2026-02 | $292 | −$2,477 | $5,884 | −$5,592 | $14,808 | $14,182 |
| 2026-03 | −$4,278 | −$4,570 | −$1,721 | −$2,557 | $19,378 | $21,787 |
| 2026-04 | −$4,199 | $79 | $2,257 | −$6,456 | $19,299 | $17,809 |
| 2026-05 | −$7,654 | −$3,455 | $4,317 | −$11,971 | $22,754 | $15,749 |
| 2026-06 | −$9,055 | −$1,401 | −$2,605 | −$6,450 | $24,155 | $22,671 |
| 2026-07 | −$12,703 | −$3,648 | −$3,263 | −$9,440 | $27,803 | $23,329 |
| 2026-08 | −$9,093 | $3,610 | −$1,700 | −$7,393 | $24,193 | $21,766 |
| 2026-09 | −$7,073 | $2,020 | $13,584 | −$20,657 | $22,173 | $6,482 |
| 2026-10 | −$13,519 | −$6,446 | $2,565 | −$16,084 | $28,619 | $17,501 |
| 2026-11 | −$14,003 | −$484 | $2,081 | −$16,084 | $29,103 | $17,985 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. META is not one of them.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, AVGO, ORCL and TSLA, META sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 40.8%. 3 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while META did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for META uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -16.2 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | META | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 58.3% | 31.0% | 1st of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $53,482 | $10,128 | 3rd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | −$3,518 | $2,828 | 43rd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $2,081 | $3,901 | 29th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$5,599 | −$495 | 41st of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | 58.3% | $53,482 | −$3,518 | $2,081 | Wheel behind |
| AMD | 25.9% | $40,866 | $21,116 | $30,109 | Wheel behind |
| AVGO | 35.7% | $41,127 | $25,877 | $11,005 | Wheel ahead |
| ORCL | 50.0% | $25,322 | −$5,678 | −$7,315 | Wheel ahead |
| TSLA | 45.8% | $54,804 | $14,304 | $3,700 | Wheel ahead |
META 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 10 IV / 27 bar / 14 HV
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