Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $5314.49 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $9215.49 vs $3901.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $3901.00 | $9215.49 |
| Largest drop | $5764.00 | $5380.42 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 11 cycles).
Simulated premium was $18,215. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$9,000. Combined realized P&L was $9,215.
Puts were assigned on 33.3% of put trades (11 of 33). Calls were assigned away on 55.6% of call trades (10 of 18).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($9,215) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($3,901) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $5,380 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $5,380, from the 2025-01-23 peak to the 2025-04-04 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-10-24. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $5,764 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $5,764, from the 2026-10-06 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 320 of 500 days (64.0%). Its widest lead was $3,159 on 2026-07-29; its widest deficit was −$3,836 on 2025-10-29.
Wheel P&L peaked at $9,138 on 2026-09-03 and bottomed at −$3,604 on 2025-04-04. Buy-and-hold peaked at $9,161 on 2026-10-06 and bottomed at −$5,332 on 2025-04-04.
Of 51 priced entries, 24 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, and 27 used historical option bars. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | −$73 | — | −$938 | $865 | $335 | $1,004 |
| 2024-12 | $289 | $362 | −$1,334 | $1,623 | $593 | $1,400 |
| 2025-01 | −$939 | −$1,228 | −$2,756 | $1,817 | $2,715 | $2,936 |
| 2025-02 | −$1,505 | −$566 | −$2,271 | $766 | $3,281 | $2,451 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,197 | −$692 | −$3,925 | $1,728 | $3,973 | $4,105 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,670 | $527 | −$3,871 | $2,201 | $3,446 | $4,051 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,041 | $629 | −$1,250 | $209 | $2,817 | $1,430 |
| 2025-06 | −$751 | $290 | $1,036 | −$1,787 | $2,527 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | −$150 | $602 | $3,024 | −$3,174 | $1,926 | $140 |
| 2025-08 | $255 | $404 | $2,655 | −$2,400 | $1,521 | $898 |
| 2025-09 | $1,183 | $929 | $3,895 | −$2,712 | $593 | $0 |
| 2025-10 | $2,105 | $922 | $5,486 | −$3,381 | $0 | $455 |
| 2025-11 | $2,448 | $343 | $2,937 | −$489 | $555 | $3,004 |
| 2025-12 | $3,944 | $1,496 | $3,887 | $57 | $403 | $2,054 |
| 2026-01 | $5,184 | $1,240 | $4,350 | $834 | $0 | $1,591 |
| 2026-02 | $4,756 | −$428 | $2,956 | $1,800 | $1,837 | $2,985 |
| 2026-03 | $5,617 | $861 | $2,677 | $2,940 | $976 | $3,264 |
| 2026-04 | $5,643 | $26 | $5,194 | $449 | $950 | $1,704 |
| 2026-05 | $6,658 | $1,015 | $6,351 | $307 | $0 | $2,460 |
| 2026-06 | $6,444 | −$214 | $5,246 | $1,198 | $949 | $3,565 |
| 2026-07 | $7,397 | $953 | $5,312 | $2,085 | $0 | $3,499 |
| 2026-08 | $8,371 | $974 | $7,315 | $1,056 | $720 | $1,496 |
| 2026-09 | $8,482 | $111 | $8,075 | $407 | $656 | $736 |
| 2026-10 | $6,679 | −$1,803 | $5,701 | $978 | $2,459 | $3,460 |
| 2026-11 | $4,879 | −$1,800 | $3,901 | $978 | $4,259 | $5,260 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. NVDA is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 197.7% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMZN, GOOGL, META and TSLA, NVDA sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 44.9%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did NVDA.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for NVDA uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +2.0 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | NVDA | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 33.3% | 31.0% | 18th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $18,215 | $10,128 | 14th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $9,215 | $2,828 | 10th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $3,901 | $3,901 | 23rd of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $5,314 | −$495 | 5th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 33.3% | $18,215 | $9,215 | $3,901 | Wheel ahead |
| AMZN | 44.0% | $17,497 | $6,497 | $5,112 | Wheel ahead |
| GOOGL | 34.5% | $19,771 | $6,271 | $10,643 | Wheel behind |
| META | 58.3% | $53,482 | −$3,518 | $2,081 | Wheel behind |
| TSLA | 45.8% | $54,804 | $14,304 | $3,700 | Wheel ahead |
NVDA 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 24 IV / 27 bar
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