Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $1636.96 ahead of buy & hold (lost less: $-5678.04 vs $-7315.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $-7315.00 | $-5678.04 |
| Largest drop | $21334.00 | $20592.80 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 11 cycles).
Simulated premium was $25,322. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$31,000. Combined realized P&L was −$5,678.
Puts were assigned on 50.0% of put trades (11 of 22). Calls were assigned away on 34.5% of call trades (10 of 29).
This simulation’s wheel P&L (−$5,678) beat buy-and-hold P&L (−$7,315) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $20,593 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $20,593, from the 2025-09-10 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $21,334 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $21,334, from the 2025-09-10 peak to the 2026-07-24 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 149 of 500 days (29.8%). Its widest lead was $3,253 on 2024-12-18; its widest deficit was −$12,403 on 2025-09-22.
Wheel P&L peaked at $10,431 on 2025-09-10 and bottomed at −$10,162 on 2026-11-05. Buy-and-hold peaked at $13,908 on 2025-09-10 and bottomed at −$7,426 on 2026-07-24.
Of 51 priced entries, 6 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $565 | — | −$441 | $1,006 | $0 | $759 |
| 2024-12 | −$979 | −$1,544 | −$2,261 | $1,282 | $1,848 | $2,579 |
| 2025-01 | −$162 | $817 | −$1,919 | $1,757 | $1,641 | $2,237 |
| 2025-02 | −$307 | −$144 | −$2,319 | $2,012 | $1,785 | $2,637 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,099 | −$1,792 | −$4,944 | $2,845 | $3,578 | $5,262 |
| 2025-04 | −$1,781 | $318 | −$4,853 | $3,072 | $3,260 | $5,171 |
| 2025-05 | −$1,085 | $696 | −$2,372 | $1,287 | $2,564 | $2,690 |
| 2025-06 | −$271 | $814 | $2,938 | −$3,209 | $1,750 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $845 | $1,116 | $6,452 | −$5,607 | $634 | $0 |
| 2025-08 | −$524 | −$1,369 | $3,688 | −$4,212 | $2,003 | $3,030 |
| 2025-09 | $886 | $1,410 | $9,199 | −$8,313 | $9,545 | $4,709 |
| 2025-10 | −$202 | −$1,088 | $7,336 | −$7,538 | $10,633 | $6,572 |
| 2025-11 | −$5,088 | −$4,886 | $1,270 | −$6,358 | $15,519 | $12,638 |
| 2025-12 | −$5,338 | −$250 | $566 | −$5,904 | $15,769 | $13,342 |
| 2026-01 | −$7,410 | −$2,072 | −$2,467 | −$4,943 | $17,841 | $16,375 |
| 2026-02 | −$8,245 | −$835 | −$4,385 | −$3,860 | $18,676 | $18,293 |
| 2026-03 | −$6,434 | $1,811 | −$4,214 | −$2,220 | $16,865 | $18,122 |
| 2026-04 | −$4,260 | $2,174 | −$2,786 | −$1,474 | $14,691 | $16,694 |
| 2026-05 | $305 | $4,565 | $3,653 | −$3,348 | $10,126 | $10,255 |
| 2026-06 | −$6,873 | −$7,178 | −$4,270 | −$2,603 | $17,304 | $18,178 |
| 2026-07 | −$7,736 | −$863 | −$5,938 | −$1,798 | $18,167 | $19,846 |
| 2026-08 | −$7,320 | $416 | −$4,013 | −$3,307 | $17,751 | $17,921 |
| 2026-09 | −$8,697 | −$1,377 | −$5,195 | −$3,502 | $19,128 | $19,103 |
| 2026-10 | −$8,611 | $86 | −$5,858 | −$2,753 | $19,042 | $19,766 |
| 2026-11 | −$10,068 | −$1,457 | −$7,315 | −$2,753 | $20,499 | $21,223 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. ORCL is one of them.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AAPL, MSFT, NVDA and SMH, ORCL sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 27.9%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did ORCL.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for ORCL uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -0.2 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | ORCL | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 50.0% | 31.0% | 2nd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $25,322 | $10,128 | 10th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | −$5,678 | $2,828 | 44th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | −$7,315 | $3,901 | 44th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $1,637 | −$495 | 7th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORCL | 50.0% | $25,322 | −$5,678 | −$7,315 | Wheel ahead |
| AAPL | 30.0% | $13,623 | $2,123 | $11,541 | Wheel behind |
| MSFT | 20.0% | $27,041 | $5,541 | $10,807 | Wheel behind |
| NVDA | 33.3% | $18,215 | $9,215 | $3,901 | Wheel ahead |
| SMH | 25.7% | $38,510 | $28,010 | $20,462 | Wheel ahead |
ORCL 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 6 IV / 27 bar / 18 HV
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