Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $339.14 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $1839.00 vs $1499.86).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $1839.00 | $1499.86 |
| Largest drop | $6100.00 | $3372.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (50 trades, 10 cycles).
Simulated premium was $6,250. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$4,750. Combined realized P&L was $1,500.
Puts were assigned on 33.3% of put trades (10 of 30). Calls were assigned away on 45.0% of call trades (9 of 20).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($1,500) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($1,839) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $3,372 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $3,372, from the 2026-02-23 peak to the 2026-10-30 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $6,100 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $6,100, from the 2026-01-28 peak to the 2026-10-30 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 214 of 500 days (42.8%). Its widest lead was $644 on 2025-04-04; its widest deficit was −$5,357 on 2026-01-28.
Wheel P&L peaked at $3,082 on 2026-02-23 and bottomed at −$290 on 2026-10-30. Buy-and-hold peaked at $7,712 on 2026-01-28 and bottomed at −$215 on 2024-12-31.
Of 50 priced entries, 10 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 26 used historical option bars, and 14 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $90 | — | −$56 | $146 | $0 | $58 |
| 2024-12 | −$1 | −$91 | −$215 | $214 | $145 | $271 |
| 2025-01 | $270 | $271 | $3 | $267 | $21 | $53 |
| 2025-02 | $321 | $52 | −$17 | $338 | $91 | $164 |
| 2025-03 | $504 | $182 | $251 | $253 | $112 | $33 |
| 2025-04 | $597 | $93 | $112 | $485 | $19 | $172 |
| 2025-05 | $684 | $87 | $152 | $532 | $13 | $132 |
| 2025-06 | $759 | $76 | $433 | $326 | $0 | $93 |
| 2025-07 | $810 | $50 | $484 | $326 | $0 | $240 |
| 2025-08 | $965 | $156 | $771 | $194 | $52 | $0 |
| 2025-09 | $1,090 | $124 | $1,389 | −$299 | $0 | $13 |
| 2025-10 | $1,239 | $149 | $1,553 | −$314 | $33 | $516 |
| 2025-11 | $1,281 | $42 | $2,273 | −$992 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-12 | $1,585 | $304 | $3,594 | −$2,009 | $0 | $670 |
| 2026-01 | $1,899 | $314 | $4,696 | −$2,797 | $456 | $3,016 |
| 2026-02 | $1,775 | −$124 | $5,651 | −$3,876 | $1,307 | $2,061 |
| 2026-03 | $1,479 | −$296 | $3,966 | −$2,487 | $1,603 | $3,746 |
| 2026-04 | $1,577 | $98 | $3,818 | −$2,241 | $1,505 | $3,894 |
| 2026-05 | $1,633 | $56 | $3,985 | −$2,352 | $1,449 | $3,727 |
| 2026-06 | $538 | −$1,095 | $2,499 | −$1,961 | $2,544 | $5,213 |
| 2026-07 | $686 | $148 | $2,388 | −$1,702 | $2,396 | $5,324 |
| 2026-08 | $1,152 | $466 | $3,165 | −$2,013 | $1,930 | $4,547 |
| 2026-09 | $487 | −$665 | $2,603 | −$2,116 | $2,595 | $5,109 |
| 2026-10 | −$290 | −$777 | $1,612 | −$1,902 | $3,372 | $6,100 |
| 2026-11 | −$63 | $227 | $1,839 | −$1,902 | $3,145 | $5,873 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. SLV is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 416.7% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its precious-metals peers AEM, GDX, GOLD and NEM, SLV sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 38.1%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while SLV did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for SLV uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +10.4 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | SLV | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 33.3% | 31.0% | 18th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $6,250 | $10,128 | 29th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $1,500 | $2,828 | 30th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $1,839 | $3,901 | 31st of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$339 | −$495 | 22nd of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLV | 33.3% | $6,250 | $1,500 | $1,839 | Wheel behind |
| AEM | 15.4% | $16,317 | $3,067 | $10,773 | Wheel behind |
| GDX | 34.5% | $7,531 | $3,931 | $4,858 | Wheel behind |
| GOLD | 41.7% | $4,820 | $420 | $605 | Wheel behind |
| NEM | 42.3% | $10,128 | $2,828 | $7,587 | Wheel behind |
SLV 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 10 IV / 26 bar / 14 HV
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