Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $10603.61 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $14303.61 vs $3700.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $3700.00 | $14303.61 |
| Largest drop | $25800.00 | $15606.18 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 11 cycles).
Simulated premium was $54,804. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$40,500. Combined realized P&L was $14,304.
Puts were assigned on 45.8% of put trades (11 of 24). Calls were assigned away on 40.7% of call trades (11 of 27).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($14,304) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($3,700) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $15,606 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $15,606, from the 2025-01-21 peak to the 2025-03-10 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-10-27. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $25,800 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $25,800, from the 2024-12-17 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-12-16.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 320 of 500 days (64.0%). Its widest lead was $12,057 on 2026-11-05; its widest deficit was −$12,075 on 2024-12-17.
Wheel P&L peaked at $17,550 on 2026-10-27 and bottomed at −$6,865 on 2025-03-10. Buy-and-hold peaked at $16,866 on 2025-12-16 and bottomed at −$9,936 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 14 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 10 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $2,419 | — | $2,394 | $25 | $0 | $740 |
| 2024-12 | $5,483 | $3,064 | $8,262 | −$2,779 | $0 | $7,602 |
| 2025-01 | $7,701 | $2,217 | $8,338 | −$637 | $1,040 | $7,526 |
| 2025-02 | −$825 | −$8,526 | −$2,824 | $1,999 | $9,566 | $18,688 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,863 | −$2,038 | −$6,206 | $3,343 | $11,604 | $22,070 |
| 2025-04 | −$941 | $1,922 | −$3,906 | $2,965 | $9,681 | $19,770 |
| 2025-05 | $1,513 | $2,454 | $2,524 | −$1,011 | $7,228 | $13,340 |
| 2025-06 | $1,685 | $172 | −$356 | $2,041 | $7,056 | $16,220 |
| 2025-07 | −$516 | −$2,201 | −$1,295 | $779 | $9,257 | $17,159 |
| 2025-08 | $1,820 | $2,336 | $1,265 | $555 | $6,920 | $14,599 |
| 2025-09 | $4,687 | $2,866 | $12,350 | −$7,663 | $4,054 | $3,514 |
| 2025-10 | $10,522 | $5,835 | $13,534 | −$3,012 | $495 | $2,330 |
| 2025-11 | $10,400 | −$122 | $10,895 | −$495 | $1,303 | $4,969 |
| 2025-12 | $11,917 | $1,517 | $12,850 | −$933 | $919 | $4,016 |
| 2026-01 | $9,912 | −$2,005 | $10,919 | −$1,007 | $2,924 | $5,947 |
| 2026-02 | $11,078 | $1,166 | $8,129 | $2,949 | $1,758 | $8,737 |
| 2026-03 | $10,543 | −$535 | $5,053 | $5,490 | $2,293 | $11,813 |
| 2026-04 | $11,107 | $564 | $6,041 | $5,066 | $3,323 | $10,825 |
| 2026-05 | $13,024 | $1,917 | $11,457 | $1,567 | $1,406 | $5,409 |
| 2026-06 | $16,077 | $3,053 | $9,938 | $6,139 | $0 | $6,928 |
| 2026-07 | $7,139 | −$8,938 | −$1,001 | $8,140 | $9,408 | $17,867 |
| 2026-08 | $8,908 | $1,769 | $4,673 | $4,235 | $7,639 | $12,193 |
| 2026-09 | $10,389 | $1,481 | $3,359 | $7,030 | $6,158 | $13,507 |
| 2026-10 | $14,304 | $3,915 | $7,859 | $6,445 | $3,246 | $9,007 |
| 2026-11 | $14,304 | $0 | $3,700 | $10,604 | $3,246 | $13,166 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. TSLA is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 383.1% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMD, AVGO, ORCL and SMH, TSLA sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 30.8%. 3 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did TSLA.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for TSLA uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +42.5 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | TSLA | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 45.8% | 31.0% | 3rd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $54,804 | $10,128 | 2nd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $14,304 | $2,828 | 6th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $3,700 | $3,901 | 24th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $10,604 | −$495 | 2nd of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA | 45.8% | $54,804 | $14,304 | $3,700 | Wheel ahead |
| AMD | 25.9% | $40,866 | $21,116 | $30,109 | Wheel behind |
| AVGO | 35.7% | $41,127 | $25,877 | $11,005 | Wheel ahead |
| ORCL | 50.0% | $25,322 | −$5,678 | −$7,315 | Wheel ahead |
| SMH | 25.7% | $38,510 | $28,010 | $20,462 | Wheel ahead |
TSLA 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 14 IV / 27 bar / 10 HV
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