Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06.
Two paired wheel simulations on WMT, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -24.8 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | 35.0% | 10.2% | -24.8 pp |
| Annualized return | 16.2% | 5.0% | -11.2 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | 48.0% | 48.0% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 16.2% | 18.3% | +2.1 pp |
| Assignment rate | 30.0% | 35.7% | +5.7 pp |
| Call-away rate | 37.5% | 50.0% | +12.5 pp |
| Average cycle return | 3.5% | 0.4% | — |
| Sample cycles | 10 | 28 | — |
| History days | 728 | 728 | — |
| Entry fills | 18 | 48 | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 50% | 50% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 50% | — |
Across the 37 published tickers, the 21-Day Rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 21 and behind on 16. The WMT total-return delta of -24.8 pp ranks 36th of 37 (1st is where managing early helped most); the median delta is +2.0 pp.
Without the rule, the standard arm returned 35.0% against 48.0% for buy-and-hold, so the plain wheel trailed holding the shares by 13.0 percentage points in this simulation.
Among its defensive, healthcare and income peers COST, LLY, UNH and XLP, the rule finished ahead of holding to expiry on 1 of 4; WMT itself came in at -24.8 pp.
The separate 10 DTE / 2% OTM wheel snapshot for WMT shows a put assignment rate of 34.6% and wheel P&L of $3,328 against $4,069 for buy-and-hold. That is a different recipe from the 35 DTE study on this page, so the two results are not additive.
| Metric | WMT | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rule total-return delta | -24.8 pp | +2.0 pp | 36th of 37 |
| Rule drawdown delta | +2.1 pp | -0.6 pp | 27th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day total return | 10.2% | 16.0% | 27th of 37 |
| 21-Day annualized return | 5.0% | 7.7% | 27th of 37 |
| Standard total return | 35.0% | 15.0% | 4th of 37 |
| 21-Day max drawdown | 18.3% | 19.0% | 16th of 37 (lowest first) |
| 21-Day call-away rate | 50.0% | 42.1% | 7th of 37 |
| Standard annualized return | 16.2% | 7.2% | 4th of 37 |
| Buy-and-hold return | 48.0% | 26.4% | 14th of 37 |
| Standard max drawdown | 16.2% | 20.8% | 13th of 37 (lowest first) |
| Standard assignment rate | 30.0% | 36.4% | 23rd of 37 |
| 21-Day assignment rate | 35.7% | 31.8% | 10th of 37 |
| 21-Day sample cycles | 28 | 28 | 16th of 37 |
| 21-Day average cycle return | 0.4% | 0.6% | 26th of 37 |
| Ticker | Standard return | 21-Day return | Rule delta | Buy-and-hold | Standard drawdown | 21-Day drawdown | Standard assignment | 21-Day assignment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WMT | 35.0% | 10.2% | -24.8 pp | 48.0% | 16.2% | 18.3% | 30.0% | 35.7% |
| COST | 16.5% | 20.4% | +4.0 pp | 11.6% | 14.1% | 14.9% | 57.1% | 31.8% |
| LLY | 65.6% | 17.7% | -47.9 pp | 62.8% | 17.0% | 23.5% | 45.5% | 39.3% |
| UNH | -27.5% | -37.5% | -10.0 pp | -36.0% | 49.1% | 52.1% | 57.1% | 34.6% |
| XLP | 18.3% | 17.8% | -0.5 pp | 11.5% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 57.1% | 21.4% |
WMT wheel snapshot — the other published study on this ticker.
Month-end P&L of holding 100 WMT shares over the same window as this study, taken from the stored series of the 10 DTE wheel snapshot. The best month for holders was 2026-10 ($1,959) and the worst was 2026-05 (−$1,618).
| Month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Change in month | Running high | Below its peak | Worst fall so far |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $767 | — | $767 | $0 | $142 |
| 2024-12 | $552 | −$215 | $1,087 | $535 | $535 |
| 2025-01 | $1,333 | $781 | $1,382 | $49 | $570 |
| 2025-02 | $1,378 | $45 | $2,022 | $644 | $1,138 |
| 2025-03 | $296 | −$1,082 | $2,022 | $1,726 | $2,055 |
| 2025-04 | $1,242 | $946 | $2,022 | $780 | $2,326 |
| 2025-05 | $1,389 | $147 | $2,022 | $633 | $2,326 |
| 2025-06 | $1,295 | −$94 | $2,022 | $727 | $2,326 |
| 2025-07 | $1,315 | $20 | $2,022 | $707 | $2,326 |
| 2025-08 | $1,215 | −$100 | $2,022 | $807 | $2,326 |
| 2025-09 | $1,823 | $608 | $2,022 | $199 | $2,326 |
| 2025-10 | $1,635 | −$188 | $2,420 | $785 | $2,326 |
| 2025-11 | $2,568 | $933 | $2,568 | $0 | $2,326 |
| 2025-12 | $2,658 | $90 | $3,196 | $538 | $2,326 |
| 2026-01 | $3,431 | $773 | $3,553 | $122 | $2,326 |
| 2026-02 | $4,312 | $881 | $4,906 | $594 | $2,326 |
| 2026-03 | $3,945 | −$367 | $4,906 | $961 | $2,326 |
| 2026-04 | $4,710 | $765 | $4,906 | $196 | $2,326 |
| 2026-05 | $3,092 | −$1,618 | $4,937 | $1,845 | $2,326 |
| 2026-06 | $2,843 | −$249 | $4,937 | $2,094 | $2,326 |
| 2026-07 | $2,637 | −$206 | $4,937 | $2,300 | $2,580 |
| 2026-08 | $2,004 | −$633 | $4,937 | $2,933 | $3,157 |
| 2026-09 | $1,909 | −$95 | $4,937 | $3,028 | $3,157 |
| 2026-10 | $3,868 | $1,959 | $4,937 | $1,069 | $3,157 |
| 2026-11 | $4,069 | $201 | $4,937 | $868 | $3,157 |
One ticker and one window prove nothing general; the rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE
Period 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06, refreshed 2026-11-08.
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