Public recipe: cash-secured wheel sized to equity, 35 DTE / 2% OTM puts and calls, manage at 21 DTE. Simulated window 2024-09-27 to 2026-09-25.
This page is a published historical simulation for UNH — two paired wheel runs, identical inputs, one managed at 21 DTE. On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -13.8 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
| Metric | Standard (hold to expiry) | 21-Day Rule | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total return | -28.5% | -42.3% | -13.8 pp |
| Annualized return | -15.5% | -24.1% | -8.6 pp |
| Buy-and-hold return | -35.3% | -35.3% | 0.0 pp |
| Max drawdown (from peak equity) | 49.5% | 52.9% | +3.3 pp |
| Assignment rate | 57.1% | 32.1% | -25.0 pp |
| Call-away rate | 30.0% | 47.1% | +17.1 pp |
| Average cycle return | -4.1% | -1.5% | — |
| Entry fills priced from real option bars | 53% | 47% | — |
| 21-DTE buy-backs priced from real option bars | — | 47% | — |
Drawdown
Standard max drawdown 49.5% vs rule 52.9% (+3.3 pp).
Assignment
Assignment rate 57.1% standard vs 32.1% rule; call-away 30.0% vs 47.1%.
Fallbacks
The rule arm held 0 of 45 short options to expiry because no 21 DTE price was available for the buy-back.
Data quality
Real option bars priced 53% of the standard arm's entry fills, 47% of the 21-Day arm's, and 47% of its 21 DTE buy-backs. The rest are modelled from implied or realized volatility.
One ticker and one window cannot prove a rule works everywhere
Simulated fills can differ from what a real order would have gotten
The rule arm sometimes cannot exit at 21 DTE and falls back to expiry
A stale or failed refresh removes this page instead of updating it
On this simulation the 21-Day Rule finished -13.8 pp behind holding to expiry — managing early hurt here.
Standard max drawdown 49.5% vs rule 52.9% (+3.3 pp).
Assignment rate 57.1% standard vs 32.1% rule; call-away 30.0% vs 47.1%.
Period 2024-09-27 to 2026-09-25, refreshed 2026-09-27. This page disappears when the data goes stale.
The table below lists both arms metric by metric, with the rule delta signed — positive means the rule finished ahead.
Fallback counts, missing-pricing counts, and data-quality status come from the stored run and stay visible.
Open the gated wheel backtest for UNH and change DTE, OTM, dates, or the management rule itself.
Standard total return
-28.5%
21-Day total return
-42.3%
Rule delta
-13.8 pp
Real-bar entry fills (21-Day arm)
47%
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