Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $725.65 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $878.65 vs $153.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $153.00 | $878.65 |
| Largest drop | $1421.00 | $1281.10 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (42 trades, 5 cycles).
Simulated premium was $1,629. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$750. Combined realized P&L was $879.
Puts were assigned on 41.7% of put trades (5 of 12). Calls were assigned away on 13.3% of call trades (4 of 30).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($879) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($153) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $1,281 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,281, from the 2026-01-15 peak to the 2026-10-07 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $1,421 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,421, from the 2026-03-02 peak to the 2026-10-07 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 473 of 500 days (94.6%). Its widest lead was $702 on 2025-10-09; its widest deficit was −$185 on 2026-02-17.
Wheel P&L peaked at $987 on 2026-01-15 and bottomed at −$393 on 2024-12-19. Buy-and-hold peaked at $1,005 on 2026-03-02 and bottomed at −$584 on 2025-01-10.
Of 42 priced entries, 16 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 11 used historical option bars, and 15 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $187 | — | $38 | $149 | $43 | $43 |
| 2024-12 | −$218 | −$405 | −$410 | $192 | $448 | $491 |
| 2025-01 | −$81 | $137 | −$287 | $206 | $311 | $368 |
| 2025-02 | $212 | $293 | −$48 | $260 | $28 | $129 |
| 2025-03 | $451 | $240 | $50 | $401 | $0 | $48 |
| 2025-04 | $532 | $81 | $35 | $497 | $0 | $66 |
| 2025-05 | $454 | −$78 | −$89 | $543 | $79 | $190 |
| 2025-06 | $593 | $139 | $10 | $583 | $76 | $91 |
| 2025-07 | $503 | −$90 | −$138 | $641 | $246 | $257 |
| 2025-08 | $709 | $206 | $125 | $584 | $40 | $114 |
| 2025-09 | $817 | $109 | $328 | $489 | $0 | $0 |
| 2025-10 | $643 | −$175 | $47 | $596 | $248 | $281 |
| 2025-11 | $646 | $3 | $10 | $636 | $245 | $318 |
| 2025-12 | $552 | −$94 | −$114 | $666 | $339 | $442 |
| 2026-01 | $713 | $162 | $365 | $348 | $273 | $63 |
| 2026-02 | $823 | $110 | $949 | −$126 | $163 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $496 | −$327 | $367 | $129 | $490 | $638 |
| 2026-04 | $683 | $187 | $673 | $10 | $303 | $332 |
| 2026-05 | $626 | −$57 | $377 | $249 | $360 | $628 |
| 2026-06 | $655 | $29 | $445 | $210 | $332 | $560 |
| 2026-07 | $628 | −$27 | $636 | −$8 | $358 | $369 |
| 2026-08 | $444 | −$184 | $377 | $67 | $542 | $628 |
| 2026-09 | −$200 | −$644 | −$321 | $121 | $1,186 | $1,326 |
| 2026-10 | $72 | $271 | −$58 | $130 | $915 | $1,063 |
| 2026-11 | $283 | $211 | $153 | $130 | $704 | $852 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. O is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 185.4% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers COST, KO, PG and WMT, O sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 35.7%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did O.
| Metric | O | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 41.7% | 31.0% | 6th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $1,629 | $10,128 | 42nd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $879 | $2,828 | 35th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $153 | $3,901 | 38th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $726 | −$495 | 14th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 16 IV / 11 bar / 15 HV
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