Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $1542.49 ahead of buy & hold (wheel made money while buy & hold lost).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $-231.00 | $1311.49 |
| Largest drop | $4166.00 | $2190.59 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 8 cycles).
Simulated premium was $5,811. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$4,500. Combined realized P&L was $1,311.
Puts were assigned on 40.0% of put trades (8 of 20). Calls were assigned away on 25.8% of call trades (8 of 31).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($1,311) beat buy-and-hold P&L (−$231) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $2,191 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $2,191, from the 2025-02-25 peak to the 2026-04-07 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-09-22. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $4,166 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $4,166, from the 2024-12-02 peak to the 2026-01-07 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 438 of 500 days (87.6%). Its widest lead was $2,898 on 2026-10-05; its widest deficit was −$1,048 on 2024-12-02.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,835 on 2026-10-15 and bottomed at −$1,432 on 2026-04-07. Buy-and-hold peaked at $1,199 on 2024-12-02 and bottomed at −$2,967 on 2026-01-07.
Of 51 priced entries, 9 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 15 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $151 | — | $1,155 | −$1,004 | $0 | $10 |
| 2024-12 | $20 | −$132 | −$6 | $26 | $251 | $1,205 |
| 2025-01 | −$151 | −$171 | −$172 | $21 | $466 | $1,371 |
| 2025-02 | $244 | $395 | $613 | −$369 | $515 | $586 |
| 2025-03 | $265 | $21 | $271 | −$6 | $494 | $928 |
| 2025-04 | −$325 | −$590 | −$514 | $189 | $1,084 | $1,713 |
| 2025-05 | $90 | $416 | $218 | −$128 | $669 | $981 |
| 2025-06 | −$237 | −$327 | −$839 | $602 | $996 | $2,038 |
| 2025-07 | −$773 | −$536 | −$1,724 | $951 | $1,532 | $2,923 |
| 2025-08 | $82 | $855 | −$1,067 | $1,149 | $677 | $2,266 |
| 2025-09 | −$19 | −$101 | −$1,406 | $1,387 | $778 | $2,605 |
| 2025-10 | −$83 | −$64 | −$1,734 | $1,651 | $842 | $2,933 |
| 2025-11 | $87 | $170 | −$1,955 | $2,042 | $672 | $3,154 |
| 2025-12 | −$221 | −$308 | −$2,440 | $2,219 | $980 | $3,639 |
| 2026-01 | $426 | $647 | −$1,594 | $2,020 | $333 | $2,793 |
| 2026-02 | $739 | $313 | −$51 | $790 | $20 | $1,250 |
| 2026-03 | −$1,118 | −$1,857 | −$2,327 | $1,209 | $1,877 | $3,526 |
| 2026-04 | −$673 | $445 | −$2,062 | $1,389 | $1,432 | $3,261 |
| 2026-05 | −$737 | −$64 | −$2,415 | $1,678 | $1,496 | $3,614 |
| 2026-06 | −$228 | $509 | −$2,107 | $1,879 | $987 | $3,306 |
| 2026-07 | $192 | $420 | −$2,322 | $2,514 | $567 | $3,521 |
| 2026-08 | $456 | $264 | −$2,259 | $2,715 | $303 | $3,458 |
| 2026-09 | $595 | $139 | −$2,243 | $2,838 | $375 | $3,442 |
| 2026-10 | $1,311 | $716 | −$614 | $1,925 | $524 | $1,813 |
| 2026-11 | $1,311 | $0 | −$231 | $1,542 | $524 | $1,430 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. PG is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 443.1% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers COST, WMT, XLP and XLU, PG sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 31.6%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did PG.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for PG uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +8.3 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | PG | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 40.0% | 31.0% | 8th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $5,811 | $10,128 | 31st of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $1,311 | $2,828 | 32nd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | −$231 | $3,901 | 41st of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $1,542 | −$495 | 8th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | 40.0% | $5,811 | $1,311 | −$231 | Wheel ahead |
| COST | 36.8% | $38,434 | $17,934 | $10,976 | Wheel ahead |
| WMT | 34.6% | $5,828 | $3,328 | $4,069 | Wheel behind |
| XLP | 28.6% | $1,671 | $421 | $926 | Wheel behind |
| XLU | 20.0% | $1,583 | $683 | $354 | Wheel ahead |
PG 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 9 IV / 27 bar / 15 HV
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