Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $1066.85 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $3175.00 vs $2108.15).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $3175.00 | $2108.15 |
| Largest drop | $823.00 | $510.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (46 trades, 8 cycles).
Simulated premium was $2,108. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was $0. Combined realized P&L was $2,108.
Puts were assigned on 32.0% of put trades (8 of 25). Calls were assigned away on 33.3% of call trades (7 of 21).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($2,108) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($3,175) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $510 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $510, from the 2026-05-14 peak to the 2026-06-04 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-06-10. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $823 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $823, from the 2025-04-22 peak to the 2025-09-26 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-01-30.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 250 of 500 days (50.0%). Its widest lead was $804 on 2026-01-07; its widest deficit was −$1,195 on 2026-10-16.
Wheel P&L peaked at $2,253 on 2026-10-15 and bottomed at −$25 on 2025-01-06. Buy-and-hold peaked at $3,191 on 2026-11-02 and bottomed at −$311 on 2025-01-06.
Of 46 priced entries, 22 used historical option bars, and 24 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $26 | — | $16 | $10 | $0 | $47 |
| 2024-12 | $136 | $110 | −$166 | $302 | $0 | $229 |
| 2025-01 | $172 | $36 | −$44 | $216 | $0 | $107 |
| 2025-02 | $226 | $54 | $729 | −$503 | $0 | $28 |
| 2025-03 | $441 | $216 | $770 | −$329 | $0 | $70 |
| 2025-04 | $602 | $161 | $863 | −$261 | $80 | $135 |
| 2025-05 | $430 | −$173 | $818 | −$388 | $252 | $180 |
| 2025-06 | $618 | $188 | $683 | −$65 | $64 | $315 |
| 2025-07 | $387 | −$231 | $397 | −$10 | $323 | $601 |
| 2025-08 | $591 | $204 | $507 | $84 | $171 | $491 |
| 2025-09 | $430 | −$161 | $240 | $190 | $332 | $758 |
| 2025-10 | $735 | $305 | $498 | $237 | $206 | $500 |
| 2025-11 | $1,115 | $380 | $920 | $195 | $0 | $78 |
| 2025-12 | $1,166 | $51 | $599 | $567 | $0 | $399 |
| 2026-01 | $1,286 | $120 | $1,089 | $197 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-02 | $1,362 | $76 | $1,764 | −$402 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $1,284 | −$78 | $1,213 | $71 | $78 | $551 |
| 2026-04 | $1,645 | $361 | $1,484 | $161 | $11 | $280 |
| 2026-05 | $1,470 | −$175 | $1,509 | −$39 | $344 | $291 |
| 2026-06 | $1,724 | $254 | $1,735 | −$11 | $257 | $232 |
| 2026-07 | $1,820 | $96 | $2,367 | −$547 | $161 | $149 |
| 2026-08 | $1,922 | $102 | $2,475 | −$553 | $59 | $332 |
| 2026-09 | $1,595 | −$327 | $2,216 | −$621 | $386 | $591 |
| 2026-10 | $2,016 | $421 | $3,016 | −$1,000 | $237 | $126 |
| 2026-11 | $2,175 | $159 | $3,175 | −$1,000 | $78 | $16 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. KO is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 100.0% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers COST, PG, WMT and XLP, KO sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 35.7%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while KO did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for KO uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -2.8 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | KO | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 32.0% | 31.0% | 22nd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $2,108 | $10,128 | 39th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $2,108 | $2,828 | 27th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $3,175 | $3,901 | 27th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$1,067 | −$495 | 28th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KO | 32.0% | $2,108 | $2,108 | $3,175 | Wheel behind |
| COST | 36.8% | $38,434 | $17,934 | $10,976 | Wheel ahead |
| PG | 40.0% | $5,811 | $1,311 | −$231 | Wheel ahead |
| WMT | 34.6% | $5,828 | $3,328 | $4,069 | Wheel behind |
| XLP | 28.6% | $1,671 | $421 | $926 | Wheel behind |
KO 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 22 bar / 24 HV
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