Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $505.34 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $926.00 vs $420.66).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $926.00 | $420.66 |
| Largest drop | $968.00 | $656.36 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (50 trades, 4 cycles).
Simulated premium was $1,671. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$1,250. Combined realized P&L was $421.
Puts were assigned on 28.6% of put trades (4 of 14). Calls were assigned away on 11.1% of call trades (4 of 36).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($421) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($926) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $656 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $656, from the 2025-02-13 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-05-16. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $968 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $968, from the 2026-02-27 peak to the 2026-10-01 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-11-02.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 347 of 500 days (69.4%). Its widest lead was $676 on 2026-01-07; its widest deficit was −$691 on 2026-11-04.
Wheel P&L peaked at $812 on 2026-10-15 and bottomed at −$423 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $1,112 on 2026-11-04 and bottomed at −$522 on 2025-11-06.
Of 50 priced entries, 26 used historical option bars, and 24 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $34 | — | $240 | −$206 | $0 | $0 |
| 2024-12 | −$82 | −$117 | −$221 | $139 | $120 | $461 |
| 2025-01 | −$41 | $41 | −$184 | $143 | $103 | $424 |
| 2025-02 | $147 | $188 | $226 | −$79 | $87 | $52 |
| 2025-03 | $109 | −$37 | $85 | $24 | $124 | $193 |
| 2025-04 | $187 | $78 | $101 | $86 | $47 | $177 |
| 2025-05 | $320 | $133 | $201 | $119 | $0 | $77 |
| 2025-06 | $213 | −$107 | $15 | $198 | $112 | $263 |
| 2025-07 | $125 | −$89 | −$104 | $229 | $214 | $382 |
| 2025-08 | $296 | $172 | −$4 | $300 | $244 | $282 |
| 2025-09 | $142 | −$155 | −$245 | $387 | $399 | $523 |
| 2025-10 | −$13 | −$155 | −$454 | $441 | $554 | $732 |
| 2025-11 | $176 | $189 | −$145 | $321 | $365 | $423 |
| 2025-12 | $244 | $68 | −$314 | $558 | $297 | $592 |
| 2026-01 | $363 | $119 | $269 | $94 | $178 | $9 |
| 2026-02 | $454 | $91 | $919 | −$465 | $87 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $67 | −$387 | $116 | −$49 | $474 | $803 |
| 2026-04 | $313 | $246 | $349 | −$36 | $228 | $570 |
| 2026-05 | $240 | −$73 | $209 | $31 | $318 | $710 |
| 2026-06 | $214 | −$26 | $225 | −$11 | $362 | $694 |
| 2026-07 | $449 | $235 | $423 | $26 | $231 | $496 |
| 2026-08 | $487 | $38 | $416 | $71 | $247 | $503 |
| 2026-09 | $174 | −$313 | −$22 | $196 | $560 | $941 |
| 2026-10 | $421 | $247 | $860 | −$439 | $391 | $59 |
| 2026-11 | $421 | $0 | $926 | −$505 | $391 | $186 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XLP is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 397.2% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers LLY, UNH, XLU and XLV, XLP sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 28.6%. 1 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while XLP did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for XLP uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -0.5 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | XLP | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 28.6% | 31.0% | 27th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $1,671 | $10,128 | 41st of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $421 | $2,828 | 39th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $926 | $3,901 | 33rd of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$505 | −$495 | 24th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLP | 28.6% | $1,671 | $421 | $926 | Wheel behind |
| LLY | 31.0% | $79,237 | $19,237 | $52,246 | Wheel behind |
| UNH | 32.1% | $32,256 | −$25,244 | −$22,166 | Wheel behind |
| XLU | 20.0% | $1,583 | $683 | $354 | Wheel ahead |
| XLV | 26.1% | $3,529 | $2,029 | $3,462 | Wheel behind |
XLP 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 26 bar / 24 HV
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