Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $1095.38 ahead of buy & hold (wheel made money while buy & hold lost).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $-15.00 | $1080.38 |
| Largest drop | $1881.00 | $1342.60 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (42 trades, 6 cycles).
Simulated premium was $2,580. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$1,500. Combined realized P&L was $1,080.
Puts were assigned on 40.0% of put trades (6 of 15). Calls were assigned away on 22.2% of call trades (6 of 27).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($1,080) beat buy-and-hold P&L (−$15) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $1,343 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,343, from the 2025-03-03 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-06-23. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $1,881 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,881, from the 2024-11-27 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-06-26.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 496 of 500 days (99.2%). Its widest lead was $1,854 on 2026-02-03; its widest deficit was −$127 on 2024-11-27.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,669 on 2026-08-25 and bottomed at −$710 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $507 on 2026-07-28 and bottomed at −$1,609 on 2025-04-08.
Of 42 priced entries, 13 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 11 used historical option bars, and 18 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $145 | — | $228 | −$83 | $0 | $44 |
| 2024-12 | −$119 | −$264 | −$680 | $561 | $285 | $952 |
| 2025-01 | $124 | $244 | −$533 | $657 | $137 | $805 |
| 2025-02 | $508 | $384 | −$198 | $706 | $0 | $470 |
| 2025-03 | $365 | −$143 | −$534 | $899 | $268 | $806 |
| 2025-04 | $214 | −$152 | −$755 | $969 | $419 | $1,027 |
| 2025-05 | $394 | $180 | −$656 | $1,050 | $239 | $928 |
| 2025-06 | $467 | $73 | −$682 | $1,149 | $236 | $954 |
| 2025-07 | $599 | $132 | −$674 | $1,273 | $290 | $946 |
| 2025-08 | $757 | $158 | −$364 | $1,121 | $218 | $636 |
| 2025-09 | $913 | $155 | −$446 | $1,359 | $63 | $718 |
| 2025-10 | $1,026 | $113 | −$670 | $1,696 | $157 | $942 |
| 2025-11 | $1,169 | $143 | −$454 | $1,623 | $14 | $726 |
| 2025-12 | $939 | −$230 | −$739 | $1,678 | $244 | $1,011 |
| 2026-01 | $1,232 | $294 | −$508 | $1,740 | $7 | $780 |
| 2026-02 | $1,390 | $158 | −$19 | $1,409 | $0 | $291 |
| 2026-03 | $900 | −$490 | −$718 | $1,618 | $490 | $990 |
| 2026-04 | $1,105 | $205 | $45 | $1,060 | $441 | $227 |
| 2026-05 | $1,196 | $91 | −$18 | $1,214 | $350 | $290 |
| 2026-06 | $1,429 | $233 | $55 | $1,374 | $117 | $224 |
| 2026-07 | $1,649 | $220 | $307 | $1,342 | $0 | $200 |
| 2026-08 | $1,388 | −$261 | $56 | $1,332 | $281 | $451 |
| 2026-09 | $757 | −$631 | −$625 | $1,382 | $912 | $1,132 |
| 2026-10 | $1,080 | $323 | −$194 | $1,274 | $589 | $701 |
| 2026-11 | $1,080 | $0 | −$15 | $1,095 | $589 | $522 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. VNQ is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 238.8% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its defensive, healthcare and income peers KO, O, PG and WMT, VNQ sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 37.3%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did VNQ.
| Metric | VNQ | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 40.0% | 31.0% | 8th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $2,580 | $10,128 | 38th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $1,080 | $2,828 | 34th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | −$15 | $3,901 | 40th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $1,095 | −$495 | 11th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 13 IV / 11 bar / 18 HV
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