Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $5266.29 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $10807.00 vs $5540.71).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $10807.00 | $5540.71 |
| Largest drop | $18924.00 | $14066.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 5 cycles).
Simulated premium was $27,041. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$21,500. Combined realized P&L was $5,541.
Puts were assigned on 20.0% of put trades (5 of 25). Calls were assigned away on 19.2% of call trades (5 of 26).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($5,541) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($10,807) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $14,066 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $14,066, from the 2025-10-28 peak to the 2026-03-27 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-08-03. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $18,924 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $18,924, from the 2025-10-28 peak to the 2026-06-25 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-10-13.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 250 of 500 days (50.0%). Its widest lead was $8,532 on 2026-06-25; its widest deficit was −$8,183 on 2025-07-31.
Wheel P&L peaked at $12,289 on 2026-08-06 and bottomed at −$4,177 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $13,326 on 2026-11-04 and bottomed at −$6,971 on 2026-06-25.
Of 51 priced entries, 7 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 17 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $631 | — | $92 | $539 | $0 | $453 |
| 2024-12 | $1,304 | $673 | −$104 | $1,408 | $0 | $3,296 |
| 2025-01 | $466 | −$839 | −$748 | $1,214 | $3,214 | $3,940 |
| 2025-02 | −$838 | −$1,304 | −$2,555 | $1,717 | $4,518 | $5,747 |
| 2025-03 | −$2,094 | −$1,256 | −$4,715 | $2,621 | $5,774 | $7,907 |
| 2025-04 | −$387 | $1,707 | −$2,728 | $2,341 | $4,067 | $5,920 |
| 2025-05 | $525 | $912 | $3,782 | −$3,257 | $3,155 | $33 |
| 2025-06 | $1,568 | $1,043 | $7,487 | −$5,919 | $2,112 | $4 |
| 2025-07 | $2,913 | $1,346 | $11,096 | −$8,183 | $767 | $0 |
| 2025-08 | $4,153 | $1,239 | $8,415 | −$4,262 | $331 | $2,895 |
| 2025-09 | $7,092 | $2,939 | $9,541 | −$2,449 | $0 | $1,769 |
| 2025-10 | $8,528 | $1,436 | $9,527 | −$999 | $2,426 | $2,426 |
| 2025-11 | $6,758 | −$1,770 | $6,947 | −$189 | $4,196 | $5,006 |
| 2025-12 | $6,575 | −$183 | $6,108 | $467 | $4,379 | $5,845 |
| 2026-01 | $2,492 | −$4,083 | $775 | $1,717 | $8,462 | $11,178 |
| 2026-02 | −$390 | −$2,882 | −$2,980 | $2,590 | $11,344 | $14,933 |
| 2026-03 | −$1,232 | −$842 | −$5,237 | $4,005 | $12,186 | $17,190 |
| 2026-04 | −$195 | $1,037 | −$1,476 | $1,281 | $11,149 | $13,429 |
| 2026-05 | $712 | $907 | $2,770 | −$2,058 | $10,242 | $9,183 |
| 2026-06 | −$1,422 | −$2,134 | −$4,952 | $3,530 | $12,376 | $16,905 |
| 2026-07 | $8,775 | $10,197 | $4,218 | $4,557 | $2,179 | $7,735 |
| 2026-08 | $4,175 | −$4,600 | $8,475 | −$4,300 | $8,114 | $3,478 |
| 2026-09 | $3,926 | −$249 | $9,036 | −$5,110 | $8,363 | $2,917 |
| 2026-10 | $5,541 | $1,615 | $9,937 | −$4,396 | $6,748 | $2,154 |
| 2026-11 | $5,541 | $0 | $10,807 | −$5,266 | $6,748 | $2,519 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. MSFT is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 488.0% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its mega-cap tech and semiconductor peers AMZN, GOOGL, META and NVDA, MSFT sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 39.3%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while MSFT did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for MSFT uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished +6.6 pp ahead of holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | MSFT | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 20.0% | 31.0% | 37th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $27,041 | $10,128 | 9th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $5,541 | $2,828 | 16th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $10,807 | $3,901 | 10th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$5,266 | −$495 | 40th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT | 20.0% | $27,041 | $5,541 | $10,807 | Wheel behind |
| AMZN | 44.0% | $17,497 | $6,497 | $5,112 | Wheel ahead |
| GOOGL | 34.5% | $19,771 | $6,271 | $10,643 | Wheel behind |
| META | 58.3% | $53,482 | −$3,518 | $2,081 | Wheel behind |
| NVDA | 33.3% | $18,215 | $9,215 | $3,901 | Wheel ahead |
MSFT 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 7 IV / 27 bar / 17 HV
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