Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $1901.65 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $2468.00 vs $566.35).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $2468.00 | $566.35 |
| Largest drop | $3110.00 | $2679.42 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 10 cycles).
Simulated premium was $7,066. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$6,500. Combined realized P&L was $566.
Puts were assigned on 37.0% of put trades (10 of 27). Calls were assigned away on 41.7% of call trades (10 of 24).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($566) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($2,468) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $2,679 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $2,679, from the 2024-11-22 peak to the 2025-05-23 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-03-27. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $3,110 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $3,110, from the 2024-11-18 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-03-02.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 279 of 500 days (55.8%). Its widest lead was $1,820 on 2025-04-08; its widest deficit was −$3,678 on 2026-10-30.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,480 on 2026-10-14 and bottomed at −$2,458 on 2025-05-23. Buy-and-hold peaked at $4,244 on 2026-10-30 and bottomed at −$2,893 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 9 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 15 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $221 | — | −$325 | $546 | $0 | $542 |
| 2024-12 | −$663 | −$884 | −$1,242 | $579 | $884 | $1,459 |
| 2025-01 | −$1,085 | −$423 | −$1,276 | $191 | $1,306 | $1,493 |
| 2025-02 | −$903 | $182 | −$1,244 | $341 | $1,124 | $1,461 |
| 2025-03 | −$1,073 | −$169 | −$657 | −$416 | $1,294 | $874 |
| 2025-04 | −$2,086 | −$1,013 | −$2,247 | $161 | $2,307 | $2,464 |
| 2025-05 | −$2,331 | −$246 | −$2,624 | $293 | $2,552 | $2,841 |
| 2025-06 | −$1,625 | $706 | −$2,185 | $560 | $1,846 | $2,402 |
| 2025-07 | −$1,108 | $517 | −$1,625 | $517 | $1,329 | $1,842 |
| 2025-08 | −$1,184 | −$76 | −$1,262 | $78 | $1,404 | $1,479 |
| 2025-09 | −$1,273 | −$89 | −$1,700 | $427 | $1,494 | $1,917 |
| 2025-10 | −$1,584 | −$311 | −$2,273 | $689 | $1,805 | $2,490 |
| 2025-11 | −$1,414 | $170 | −$2,290 | $876 | $1,635 | $2,507 |
| 2025-12 | −$1,115 | $299 | −$1,798 | $683 | $1,336 | $2,015 |
| 2026-01 | −$729 | $386 | −$736 | $7 | $950 | $953 |
| 2026-02 | −$292 | $437 | $187 | −$479 | $513 | $30 |
| 2026-03 | $292 | $584 | $2,041 | −$1,749 | $0 | $180 |
| 2026-04 | $91 | −$201 | $1,419 | −$1,328 | $247 | $802 |
| 2026-05 | −$1,113 | −$1,204 | $239 | −$1,352 | $1,451 | $1,982 |
| 2026-06 | −$1,763 | −$650 | −$763 | −$1,000 | $2,101 | $2,984 |
| 2026-07 | −$255 | $1,508 | $889 | −$1,144 | $593 | $1,332 |
| 2026-08 | $236 | $491 | $2,090 | −$1,854 | $102 | $240 |
| 2026-09 | −$425 | −$661 | $1,356 | −$1,781 | $1,392 | $1,607 |
| 2026-10 | $566 | $991 | $4,244 | −$3,678 | $914 | $0 |
| 2026-11 | $566 | $0 | $2,468 | −$1,902 | $914 | $1,776 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. COP is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 1247.7% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its energy peers OIH, URA, XLE and XOM, COP sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 31.9%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while COP did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for COP uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -0.1 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | COP | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 37.0% | 31.0% | 10th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $7,066 | $10,128 | 28th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $566 | $2,828 | 38th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $2,468 | $3,901 | 28th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$1,902 | −$495 | 32nd of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COP | 37.0% | $7,066 | $566 | $2,468 | Wheel behind |
| OIH | 29.2% | $22,360 | $6,360 | $5,798 | Wheel ahead |
| URA | 34.8% | $5,316 | $1,566 | $134 | Wheel ahead |
| XLE | 25.0% | $3,280 | $1,230 | $1,474 | Wheel behind |
| XOM | 34.5% | $7,231 | $3,981 | $4,476 | Wheel behind |
COP 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 9 IV / 27 bar / 15 HV
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