Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $561.83 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $6359.83 vs $5798.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $5798.00 | $6359.83 |
| Largest drop | $11054.00 | $10333.01 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (42 trades, 7 cycles).
Simulated premium was $22,360. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$16,000. Combined realized P&L was $6,360.
Puts were assigned on 29.2% of put trades (7 of 24). Calls were assigned away on 38.9% of call trades (7 of 18).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($6,360) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($5,798) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $10,333 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $10,333, from the 2024-11-22 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-01-30. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $11,054 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $11,054, from the 2024-11-22 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-12-04.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 203 of 500 days (40.6%). Its widest lead was $2,482 on 2025-10-09; its widest deficit was −$9,932 on 2026-05-18.
Wheel P&L peaked at $8,234 on 2026-08-17 and bottomed at −$9,742 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $15,575 on 2026-05-18 and bottomed at −$10,145 on 2025-04-08.
Of 42 priced entries, 11 used historical option bars, and 31 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $591 | — | $513 | $78 | $0 | $396 |
| 2024-12 | −$1,585 | −$2,176 | −$2,694 | $1,109 | $2,176 | $3,603 |
| 2025-01 | −$3,328 | −$1,742 | −$2,121 | −$1,207 | $3,919 | $3,030 |
| 2025-02 | −$3,761 | −$433 | −$3,179 | −$582 | $4,352 | $4,088 |
| 2025-03 | −$3,202 | $559 | −$3,605 | $403 | $3,793 | $4,514 |
| 2025-04 | −$7,239 | −$4,037 | −$8,911 | $1,672 | $7,830 | $9,820 |
| 2025-05 | −$6,572 | $666 | −$8,153 | $1,581 | $7,163 | $9,062 |
| 2025-06 | −$5,613 | $959 | −$6,788 | $1,175 | $6,204 | $7,697 |
| 2025-07 | −$3,994 | $1,619 | −$5,445 | $1,451 | $4,585 | $6,354 |
| 2025-08 | −$3,037 | $958 | −$4,132 | $1,095 | $3,628 | $5,041 |
| 2025-09 | −$1,627 | $1,410 | −$3,826 | $2,199 | $2,218 | $4,735 |
| 2025-10 | −$1,597 | $30 | −$1,448 | −$149 | $2,188 | $2,357 |
| 2025-11 | −$1,037 | $560 | −$856 | −$181 | $1,628 | $1,765 |
| 2025-12 | −$187 | $850 | −$1,340 | $1,153 | $778 | $2,389 |
| 2026-01 | $1,376 | $1,563 | $5,022 | −$3,646 | $0 | $292 |
| 2026-02 | $2,577 | $1,201 | $9,880 | −$7,303 | $0 | $393 |
| 2026-03 | $3,957 | $1,380 | $10,604 | −$6,647 | $0 | $1,199 |
| 2026-04 | $5,114 | $1,157 | $15,007 | −$9,893 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-05 | $4,468 | −$647 | $12,008 | −$7,540 | $1,175 | $3,567 |
| 2026-06 | $1,632 | −$2,835 | $7,386 | −$5,754 | $5,404 | $8,189 |
| 2026-07 | $3,315 | $1,682 | $8,664 | −$5,349 | $3,722 | $6,911 |
| 2026-08 | $5,526 | $2,211 | $13,101 | −$7,575 | $2,708 | $2,474 |
| 2026-09 | $4,283 | −$1,243 | $8,020 | −$3,737 | $3,951 | $7,555 |
| 2026-10 | $6,360 | $2,077 | $11,340 | −$4,980 | $1,874 | $4,235 |
| 2026-11 | $6,360 | $0 | $5,798 | $562 | $1,874 | $9,777 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. OIH is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 351.6% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its energy peers COP, CVX, URA and XOM, OIH sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 34.6%. 1 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did OIH.
| Metric | OIH | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 29.2% | 31.0% | 26th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $22,360 | $10,128 | 11th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $6,360 | $2,828 | 13th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $5,798 | $3,901 | 17th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $562 | −$495 | 16th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 11 bar / 31 HV
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