Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $243.78 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $1474.00 vs $1230.22).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $1474.00 | $1230.22 |
| Largest drop | $1042.00 | $981.66 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 9 cycles).
Simulated premium was $3,280. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$2,050. Combined realized P&L was $1,230.
Puts were assigned on 25.0% of put trades (9 of 36). Calls were assigned away on 60.0% of call trades (9 of 15).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($1,230) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($1,474) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $982 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $982, from the 2024-11-22 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2025-10-27. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $1,042 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,042, from the 2024-11-22 peak to the 2025-04-08 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-01-21.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 201 of 500 days (40.2%). Its widest lead was $599 on 2025-12-16; its widest deficit was −$1,084 on 2026-10-30.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,230 on 2026-10-16 and bottomed at −$919 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $2,314 on 2026-10-30 and bottomed at −$866 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 19 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 23 used historical option bars, and 9 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $63 | — | $89 | −$26 | $0 | $87 |
| 2024-12 | −$401 | −$464 | −$405 | $4 | $464 | $581 |
| 2025-01 | −$550 | −$149 | −$306 | −$244 | $613 | $482 |
| 2025-02 | −$345 | $205 | −$138 | −$207 | $408 | $314 |
| 2025-03 | −$68 | $278 | −$15 | −$53 | $131 | $191 |
| 2025-04 | −$594 | −$527 | −$663 | $69 | $657 | $839 |
| 2025-05 | −$472 | $122 | −$611 | $139 | $535 | $787 |
| 2025-06 | −$305 | $167 | −$447 | $142 | $368 | $623 |
| 2025-07 | −$214 | $91 | −$327 | $113 | $277 | $503 |
| 2025-08 | −$155 | $59 | −$168 | $13 | $218 | $344 |
| 2025-09 | $32 | $187 | −$221 | $253 | $31 | $397 |
| 2025-10 | $64 | $32 | −$281 | $345 | $0 | $457 |
| 2025-11 | $252 | $188 | −$165 | $417 | $0 | $341 |
| 2025-12 | $285 | $33 | −$217 | $502 | $25 | $393 |
| 2026-01 | $460 | $175 | $417 | $43 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-02 | $610 | $150 | $904 | −$294 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $935 | $325 | $1,438 | −$503 | $0 | $130 |
| 2026-04 | $768 | −$167 | $1,277 | −$509 | $167 | $291 |
| 2026-05 | $281 | −$487 | $941 | −$660 | $654 | $627 |
| 2026-06 | $450 | $169 | $623 | −$173 | $485 | $945 |
| 2026-07 | $732 | $282 | $1,267 | −$535 | $203 | $301 |
| 2026-08 | $910 | $178 | $1,708 | −$798 | $25 | $0 |
| 2026-09 | $1,017 | $107 | $1,462 | −$445 | $0 | $443 |
| 2026-10 | $1,230 | $213 | $2,314 | −$1,084 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-11 | $1,230 | $0 | $1,474 | −$244 | $0 | $840 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. XLE is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 266.6% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its energy peers CVX, OIH, URA and XOM, XLE sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 31.9%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while XLE did not.
| Metric | XLE | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 25.0% | 31.0% | 31st of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $3,280 | $10,128 | 36th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $1,230 | $2,828 | 33rd of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $1,474 | $3,901 | 32nd of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$244 | −$495 | 21st of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 19 IV / 23 bar / 9 HV
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