Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
The wheel finished $1432.11 ahead of buy & hold (earned more: $1566.11 vs $134.00).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $134.00 | $1566.11 |
| Largest drop | $3083.00 | $1672.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 8 cycles).
Simulated premium was $5,316. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$3,750. Combined realized P&L was $1,566.
Puts were assigned on 34.8% of put trades (8 of 23). Calls were assigned away on 25.0% of call trades (7 of 28).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($1,566) beat buy-and-hold P&L ($134) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $1,672 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $1,672, from the 2026-02-25 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $3,083 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $3,083, from the 2026-01-28 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 164 of 500 days (32.8%). Its widest lead was $455 on 2025-04-14; its widest deficit was −$1,987 on 2025-10-15.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,836 on 2026-02-25 and bottomed at −$677 on 2025-04-08. Buy-and-hold peaked at $3,081 on 2026-01-28 and bottomed at −$1,074 on 2025-04-08.
Of 51 priced entries, 10 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 14 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $91 | — | $135 | −$45 | $0 | $77 |
| 2024-12 | −$336 | −$426 | −$422 | $86 | $426 | $634 |
| 2025-01 | −$99 | $237 | −$269 | $171 | $267 | $481 |
| 2025-02 | −$374 | −$276 | −$620 | $246 | $543 | $832 |
| 2025-03 | −$411 | −$37 | −$808 | $397 | $579 | $1,020 |
| 2025-04 | −$280 | $131 | −$600 | $320 | $448 | $812 |
| 2025-05 | −$132 | $148 | $101 | −$233 | $300 | $111 |
| 2025-06 | $8 | $139 | $781 | −$773 | $161 | $0 |
| 2025-07 | $185 | $177 | $836 | −$651 | $0 | $280 |
| 2025-08 | $330 | $146 | $967 | −$637 | $98 | $149 |
| 2025-09 | $602 | $272 | $1,667 | −$1,065 | $0 | $273 |
| 2025-10 | $902 | $300 | $2,412 | −$1,510 | $0 | $299 |
| 2025-11 | $698 | −$204 | $1,428 | −$730 | $261 | $1,283 |
| 2025-12 | $390 | −$308 | $1,173 | −$783 | $700 | $1,538 |
| 2026-01 | $1,489 | $1,099 | $2,399 | −$910 | $26 | $682 |
| 2026-02 | $1,567 | $78 | $2,334 | −$767 | $269 | $747 |
| 2026-03 | $1,431 | −$136 | $1,743 | −$312 | $405 | $1,338 |
| 2026-04 | $1,493 | $62 | $2,542 | −$1,049 | $343 | $539 |
| 2026-05 | $1,409 | −$84 | $1,976 | −$567 | $427 | $1,105 |
| 2026-06 | $1,078 | −$331 | $1,270 | −$192 | $758 | $1,811 |
| 2026-07 | $810 | −$268 | $807 | $3 | $1,026 | $2,274 |
| 2026-08 | $1,202 | $392 | $1,451 | −$249 | $634 | $1,630 |
| 2026-09 | $884 | −$318 | $885 | −$1 | $952 | $2,196 |
| 2026-10 | $439 | −$445 | $273 | $166 | $1,397 | $2,808 |
| 2026-11 | $300 | −$139 | $134 | $166 | $1,536 | $2,947 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. URA is one of them.
Simulated premium equals 339.4% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its energy peers COP, CVX, XLE and XOM, URA sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 29.8%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, as did URA.
| Metric | URA | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 34.8% | 31.0% | 13th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $5,316 | $10,128 | 32nd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $1,566 | $2,828 | 29th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $134 | $3,901 | 39th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | $1,432 | −$495 | 9th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 10 IV / 27 bar / 14 HV
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