Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $2968.40 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $5568.00 vs $2599.60).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $5568.00 | $2599.60 |
| Largest drop | $4546.00 | $3845.49 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (51 trades, 9 cycles).
Simulated premium was $8,600. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$6,000. Combined realized P&L was $2,600.
Puts were assigned on 24.3% of put trades (9 of 37). Calls were assigned away on 64.3% of call trades (9 of 14).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($2,600) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($5,568) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $3,845 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $3,845, from the 2024-11-22 peak to the 2025-04-21 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-02-13. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $4,546 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $4,546, from the 2026-03-27 peak to the 2026-07-01 trough, and got back to that peak on 2026-09-02.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 46 of 500 days (9.2%). Its widest lead was $1,337 on 2025-04-10; its widest deficit was −$5,259 on 2026-10-30.
Wheel P&L peaked at $2,600 on 2026-10-16 and bottomed at −$3,584 on 2025-04-21. Buy-and-hold peaked at $7,859 on 2026-10-30 and bottomed at −$2,320 on 2025-04-21.
Of 51 priced entries, 4 used Black-Scholes fills from implied volatility, 27 used historical option bars, and 20 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $261 | — | $500 | −$239 | $0 | $60 |
| 2024-12 | −$1,039 | −$1,300 | −$1,209 | $170 | $1,300 | $1,769 |
| 2025-01 | −$1,678 | −$640 | −$774 | −$904 | $1,939 | $1,334 |
| 2025-02 | −$1,108 | $571 | $169 | −$1,277 | $1,369 | $391 |
| 2025-03 | −$858 | $250 | $1,036 | −$1,894 | $1,119 | $68 |
| 2025-04 | −$3,079 | −$2,222 | −$2,087 | −$992 | $3,340 | $3,245 |
| 2025-05 | −$2,766 | $313 | −$2,023 | −$743 | $3,027 | $3,181 |
| 2025-06 | −$2,421 | $345 | −$1,374 | −$1,047 | $2,682 | $2,532 |
| 2025-07 | −$2,088 | $333 | −$529 | −$1,559 | $2,350 | $1,687 |
| 2025-08 | −$1,785 | $304 | $367 | −$2,152 | $2,046 | $791 |
| 2025-09 | −$1,355 | $429 | −$164 | −$1,191 | $1,616 | $1,322 |
| 2025-10 | −$826 | $529 | $79 | −$905 | $1,087 | $1,079 |
| 2025-11 | −$648 | $178 | −$580 | −$68 | $909 | $1,738 |
| 2025-12 | −$357 | $291 | −$452 | $95 | $618 | $1,610 |
| 2026-01 | $68 | $425 | $1,997 | −$1,929 | $193 | $0 |
| 2026-02 | $566 | $498 | $2,983 | −$2,417 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-03 | $1,083 | $517 | $4,997 | −$3,914 | $0 | $425 |
| 2026-04 | $536 | −$547 | $3,638 | −$3,102 | $547 | $1,784 |
| 2026-05 | $395 | −$141 | $2,553 | −$2,158 | $785 | $2,869 |
| 2026-06 | −$999 | −$1,394 | $883 | −$1,882 | $2,179 | $4,539 |
| 2026-07 | $141 | $1,140 | $3,990 | −$3,849 | $1,039 | $1,432 |
| 2026-08 | $1,519 | $1,378 | $4,921 | −$3,402 | $352 | $501 |
| 2026-09 | $1,970 | $451 | $4,728 | −$2,758 | $0 | $1,356 |
| 2026-10 | $2,600 | $630 | $7,859 | −$5,259 | $0 | $0 |
| 2026-11 | $2,600 | $0 | $5,568 | −$2,968 | $0 | $2,291 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. CVX is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 330.8% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its energy peers COP, OIH, URA and XLE, CVX sits below the peer median put assignment rate of 32.0%. 2 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while CVX did not.
The separate 21-Day Rule study for CVX uses a longer 35 DTE recipe, so it is not additive to this snapshot. On that study the managed arm finished -14.7 pp behind holding to expiry, against a median of +2.0 pp across tickers.
| Metric | CVX | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 24.3% | 31.0% | 32nd of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $8,600 | $10,128 | 25th of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $2,600 | $2,828 | 25th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $5,568 | $3,901 | 18th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$2,968 | −$495 | 35th of 45 |
| Ticker | Put assignment | Premium | Wheel P&L | Buy-and-hold P&L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVX | 24.3% | $8,600 | $2,600 | $5,568 | Wheel behind |
| COP | 37.0% | $7,066 | $566 | $2,468 | Wheel behind |
| OIH | 29.2% | $22,360 | $6,360 | $5,798 | Wheel ahead |
| URA | 34.8% | $5,316 | $1,566 | $134 | Wheel ahead |
| XLE | 25.0% | $3,280 | $1,230 | $1,474 | Wheel behind |
CVX 21-Day Rule study — the other published study on this ticker.
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 4 IV / 27 bar / 20 HV
Everything you need to know about getting started
