Nov 8, 2024 – Nov 6, 2026
Buy & hold finished $185.11 ahead of the wheel (earned more: $605.00 vs $419.89).
Buy & hold Buy 100 shares and hold | Wheel strategy Puts → calls · keep premiums as cash | |
|---|---|---|
| Profit or loss | $605.00 | $419.89 |
| Largest drop | $2663.00 | $2007.00 |
This simulation ran 2024-11-08 to 2026-11-06 (44 trades, 10 cycles).
Simulated premium was $4,820. Simulated stock / assignment P&L was −$4,400. Combined realized P&L was $420.
Puts were assigned on 41.7% of put trades (10 of 24). Calls were assigned away on 45.0% of call trades (9 of 20).
This simulation’s wheel P&L ($420) trailed buy-and-hold P&L ($605) on the stored window.
Wheel drawdown was $2,007 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $2,007, from the 2026-02-20 peak to the 2026-05-15 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window. Buy-and-hold drawdown was $2,663 on the engine's stored basis; measured as the deepest fall from a P&L peak on the daily P&L series it was $2,663, from the 2026-02-09 peak to the 2026-11-05 trough, and had not got back to that peak by the end of the window.
On the stored daily series the wheel was ahead of buy-and-hold on 288 of 500 days (57.6%). Its widest lead was $967 on 2025-05-08; its widest deficit was −$2,405 on 2026-02-09.
Wheel P&L peaked at $1,366 on 2026-02-20 and bottomed at −$641 on 2026-05-15. Buy-and-hold peaked at $3,256 on 2026-02-09 and bottomed at −$1,185 on 2025-05-30.
Of 44 priced entries, 10 used historical option bars, and 34 used Black-Scholes fills from realized volatility. The engine flagged this run as using modeled fills.
| Month | Wheel P&L | Wheel change in month | Buy-and-hold P&L | Wheel minus hold | Wheel below peak | Hold below peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11 | $88 | — | −$128 | $216 | $18 | $128 |
| 2024-12 | −$57 | −$145 | −$418 | $361 | $163 | $418 |
| 2025-01 | $37 | $95 | −$341 | $378 | $68 | $341 |
| 2025-02 | $27 | −$10 | −$440 | $467 | $79 | $440 |
| 2025-03 | −$0 | −$27 | −$621 | $621 | $128 | $621 |
| 2025-04 | −$120 | −$120 | −$722 | $602 | $248 | $722 |
| 2025-05 | −$418 | −$297 | −$1,185 | $767 | $545 | $1,185 |
| 2025-06 | −$81 | $336 | −$940 | $859 | $209 | $940 |
| 2025-07 | −$193 | −$111 | −$1,030 | $837 | $320 | $1,030 |
| 2025-08 | −$50 | $143 | −$817 | $767 | $177 | $817 |
| 2025-09 | $61 | $110 | −$571 | $632 | $67 | $571 |
| 2025-10 | $184 | $123 | −$500 | $684 | $0 | $500 |
| 2025-11 | $445 | $261 | −$287 | $732 | $0 | $287 |
| 2025-12 | $422 | −$23 | $247 | $175 | $290 | $74 |
| 2026-01 | $851 | $429 | $2,027 | −$1,176 | $0 | $214 |
| 2026-02 | $1,366 | $515 | $2,589 | −$1,223 | $0 | $667 |
| 2026-03 | −$376 | −$1,742 | $850 | −$1,226 | $1,742 | $2,406 |
| 2026-04 | $486 | $862 | $1,361 | −$875 | $880 | $1,895 |
| 2026-05 | −$389 | −$874 | $1,073 | −$1,462 | $1,754 | $2,183 |
| 2026-06 | −$59 | $330 | $1,003 | −$1,062 | $1,425 | $2,253 |
| 2026-07 | −$304 | −$246 | $978 | −$1,282 | $1,670 | $2,278 |
| 2026-08 | $85 | $389 | $1,339 | −$1,254 | $1,281 | $1,917 |
| 2026-09 | $315 | $230 | $1,099 | −$784 | $1,051 | $2,157 |
| 2026-10 | −$277 | −$592 | $645 | −$922 | $1,643 | $2,611 |
| 2026-11 | −$317 | −$40 | $605 | −$922 | $1,683 | $2,651 |
18 of 45 snapshots show simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold over their windows. GOLD is not one of them.
Simulated premium equals 1147.9% of the combined wheel P&L here; the median across snapshots with positive wheel P&L is 238.8%.
Compared with its precious-metals peers GDX, GLD, SLV and WPM, GOLD sits above the peer median put assignment rate of 27.6%. 0 of those 4 peers had simulated wheel P&L above buy-and-hold, while GOLD did not.
| Metric | GOLD | Family median | Rank (highest first unless noted) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Put assignment rate | 41.7% | 31.0% | 6th of 45 |
| Simulated premium | $4,820 | $10,128 | 33rd of 45 |
| Wheel P&L | $420 | $2,828 | 40th of 45 |
| Buy-and-hold P&L | $605 | $3,901 | 35th of 45 |
| Wheel minus buy-and-hold | −$185 | −$495 | 19th of 45 |
One fixed recipe: no price tape, no trade list, and model fills where quotes were missing
Requested 2024-11-08–2026-11-08; actual 2024-11-08–2026-11-06.
Pricing sources: 10 bar / 34 HV
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